Coronavirus UK: Matt Hancock insists lockdown must stay

Matt Hancock tonight insisted the coronavirus lockdown must stay until there is no risk of a second peak – as scientists warned the outbreak might not be fading.

The Health Secretary vowed not to compromise the national effort against the disease as Professor Jonathan Van-Tam told the daily Downing Street briefing that while hospital occupancy rates had dipped in in London the picture in other parts of the UK was ‘more of a plateau’.  

The figures – along with another 828 deaths being declared in the UK – add weight to the arguments of those who want to err on the side of caution despite the devastation being wreaked on the economy.    

Divisions have emerged between Cabinet ‘doves’ such as Mr Hancock and ‘hawks’ who believe the NHS has capacity and would prefer to loosen the draconian social distancing measures earlier.

The PM has intervened from his recuperation at Chequers to snuff out speculation about an imminent easing, with Downing Street making clear his priority is avoiding a ‘second peak’ in the outbreak. 

There are reports Mr Johnson’s inner circle has stopped using the phrase ‘exit strategy’ and instead wants to signal a ‘next phase’ of lockdown, with varying levels of restrictions set to continue for the rest of the year until the virus gets ‘close to eradication’ or a vaccine is found. Australia has successfully suppressed cases to very low numbers.

Scientists have been telling ministers behind the scenes that control of the outbreak is still so uncertain that even slight changes to the curbs on normal life could result in a disastrous flare-up. 

Mr Hancock said tonight:  ‘We have been clear that we will not risk lives by relaxing the social distancing rules before our five tests have been met. 

‘First, that the NHS can continue to cope, second, that the operational challenges can be met, third, that the daily death rate falls sustainably and consistently, fourth, that the rate of infection is decreasing, and most importantly, that there is no risk of a second peak.’  

Deputy Chief Medical Officer Prof Van-Tam said: ‘It is not absolutely clear that there have been peaks, nor is it absolutely clear that the number of cases is dropping.’ 

He warned that meant ‘we must keep pushing’ on social distancing.

In other developments today:  

• The UK has announced another 828 deaths from the coronavirus today, taking Britain’s total number of victims to 17,337. Although the rise in fatalities is the biggest since Saturday, April 18 (888), and almost double the number that were announced yesterday (449), it does not necessarily mean the outbreak is getting worse because the deaths are backdated; 
• Official figures suggest the true number of coronavirus victims in the UK may be 41 per cent higher than previously announced. Mortality data released by the ONS imply the death toll might be closer to 23,000 up to April 10; 
• Mr Johnson appears to be gearing up to take back the reins of government, speaking to Donald Trump on the phone today, although Downing Street insisted he is not doing any ‘official work’;   
• An RAF plane sent to collect crucial PPE for the NHS from Turkey still has not started its return journey with ministers admitting it might be ‘days’ before the supplied arrive; 
• The House of Commons has returned from its Easter recess, but only to approve a ‘virtual’ Parliament that will kick off tomorrow.

How members of the cabinet are currently split over the ending of the lockdown. Mr Johnson (top left) and Matt Hancock (bottom left) are classed as ‘doves’; Michael Gove, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak (right, top-to-bottom) as ‘hawks’; and Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab (top centre) is among those in the middle, with Gavin Williamson (centre) and Alok Sharma (centre bottom)

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam told the daily Downing Street briefing that while hospital occupancy rates had dipped in in London the picture in other parts of the UK was ‘more of a plateau’

Deputy Chief Medical Officer Prof Van-Tam (left) said the stubborn level of hospital admissions meant ‘we must keep pushing’ on social distancing. Health Secretary Matt Hancock reiterated at the update that the lockdown will not be relaxed until there is ‘no risk of a second peak’

There is no prospect of lockdown measures being eased before the current period comes to an end on May 11.

However, some senior Tories have been pushing plans for an easing soon afterwards, pointing out that the NHS is still below surge capacity and could ‘run hot’ to limit the economic meltdown.  

Before his illness there were rumours Mr Johnson was alarmed about the devastation being wrought on UK plc. 

However, the premier, who was released from hospital a week ago, is now seen as aligned with the Cabinet ‘doves’ cautious about shifting too early. 

According to the Times, Mr Johnson is thought to be leaning towards ‘a longer lockdown that aims to drive the virus close to eradication, allowing occasional flare-ups to be isolated and shut down through testing and contact tracing’.

Mr Hancock, who also contracted coronavirus, is also urging a safety-first approach, regarding a second wave of the virus as more dangerous than the impact of lockdown.   

Chancellor Rishi Sunak, Trade Secretary Liz Truss, and Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove are thought to be more hawkish about the need to ease restrictions sooner – although they have been toeing the line in public. 

Downing Street has been furiously playing down hints that schools could partly reopen in the middle of next month, with June now looking the earliest timetable. 

Government scientists have been warning that the situation is currently so finely balanced that even marginal loosenings could have disastrous effects,

One Cabinet source told the Guardian the government’s advisers on Sage had suggested any easing would push up the rate of transmission – known as R.

The source said: ‘The scientists are very clear. There’s no loosening of measures we can do that won’t bring the R back over 1. 

‘There may be some small changes on their own that could do it, but the question is whether behaviours change in other ways and push the R above 1. 

‘The second you have the R above one then you’re back to exponential growth.

‘We did have an R of about 3. And we’ve driven that down. But even a small increase in transmission could put you above 1.’ 

There are claims that Mr Hancock (pictured taking the daily briefing in Downing Street tonight) is being lined up as a fall guy for the government’s coronavirus blunders 

Amid calls from senior Tories for the government to spell out an exit strategy, one MP told The Times that fighting for his life in intensive care had changed Mr Johnson.

The MP said: ‘The Prime Minister is in a funny place, I think he’s quite frightened. His illness and the warning from the doctors has really hit him hard.

‘To find himself floored like this has really got into his head. He has become really tentative.’   

There are growing signs that Mr Johnson could be back in action soon, with Downing Street confirming he is now receiving daily updates and speaking to deputy Dominic Raab by phone – although he is still not doing official work.   

But while his spokesman insists that Mr Johnson is not doing any ‘official work’, it emerged that he is speaking to the US president this afternoon.

Mr Johnson will also have his audience with the Queen by phone later in the week – although his deputy Dominic Raab will take PMQs in the Commons tomorrow and chair Cabinet on Thursday.  

The No10 spokesman said of the conversation with Mr Trump – whose wife Melania called Ms Symonds to pass on  best wishes: ‘It is an opportunity to thank the President for the messages of support he has sent to him. 

‘But it is also the case it will allow the PM to get an update on the international G7 response, as the US is the chair.’ 

While there are some ministers taking stronger positions either way, the bulk of the Cabinet – including Mr Raab – are content to wait for more evidence. Scientists have been asked to present options for the lockdown by the end of the month. 

As tensions rise, Mr Hancock is reportedly being lined up as the ‘fall guy’ for the government’s coronavirus failures – particularly his high-profile 100,000 daily testing target. 

Mr Hancock has been one of the government’s most visible ministers during the outbreak after returning to the frontline following his own battle with the disease. 

But he is under increasing pressure from critics who have questioned the wisdom of promising to increase the number of tests to six figures a day by the end of this month. 

They have also attacked Mr Hancock over his handling of PPE shortages which have seen doctors, nurses and care home staff blast the government for failing to do enough to keep them safe. 

Government insiders told the Telegraph Mr Hancock has ‘not had a good crisis’ while a former Cabinet minister said some in Whitehall believe the Health Secretary had developed ‘a sort of Messiah complex’. 

Some now expect Mr Hancock to be moved from the Department of Health before a widely-anticipated future inquiry is held into the government’s response to the outbreak.  

Is the UK’s REAL coronavirus death toll 40% higher? 

The Office for National Statistics data, which reveals the true scale of coronavirus deaths, is now considerably higher than the Department of Health’s daily updates

The true number of coronavirus victims in the UK may still be 41 per cent higher than daily Government statistics are letting on.

Weekly data published today by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that at least 13,121 people had died in England and Wales by April 10.

Department of Health statistics had, by that date, announced only 9,288 fatalities – the backdated deaths increased the total by 41.2 per cent. That suggests the death toll of 16,509 confirmed yesterday could in reality be closer to 23,000.

And care homes in England and Wales had recorded the deaths of at least 1,644 residents by April 10 – 10 per cent of all the UK’s COVID-19 deaths. Today’s update is one of the first real official glimpses of the crisis gripping the care sector.

Fifteen per cent of all people dying with COVID-19 were succumbing to their illness outside of hospitals, the stats showed, revealing the crisis cannot be managed solely by the NHS.

And one in every three people (33.6 per cent) who died of any cause between April 4 and April 10 had coronavirus.

That week, authorities recorded the most deaths for a single week in 20 years, with 18,516 people dying – 8,000 more than average. Around 6,200 of those were officially linked to the coronavirus, suggesting a further 1,800 were indirect ‘excess’ deaths or COVID-19 sufferers who never got tested.

The record number of fatalities coincides with what now appears to have been the peak of the UK’s COVID-19 outbreak on April 8, when NHS hospitals recorded 803 coronavirus patients dying.

England, Scotland and Wales have announced another 873 deaths from the coronavirus today, taking the UK’s total to 17,382.

This rise in fatalities is the biggest increase since Saturday, April 18 (888), and almost double the number that were announced yesterday (449).

Although the rebound looks bad on a graph it doesn’t mean the outbreak is getting worse because the deaths are backdated – 43 of them actually happened in March, and 493 were spread across Saturday, Sunday and Monday.  

NHS data shows April 8 remains the deadliest day so far in the epidemic and, with today’s announcements added, the day believed to be the peak of the outbreak saw 815 hospital fatalities. 

But the true number of coronavirus victims in the UK may still be 41 per cent higher than daily Government and NHS statistics are letting on.

Weekly data published today by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that at least 13,121 people had died in England and Wales by April 10. 

Department of Health statistics had, by that date, announced only 9,288 fatalities – the backdated deaths increased the total by 41.2 per cent. That suggests the death toll of 17,382 confirmed today could in reality be closer to 25,000.

And care homes in England and Wales had recorded the deaths of at least 1,644 residents by April 10 – 10 per cent of all the UK’s COVID-19 deaths. Today’s update is one of the first real official glimpses of the crisis gripping the care sector. 

Fifteen per cent of all people dying with COVID-19 were succumbing to their illness outside of hospitals, the stats showed, revealing the crisis cannot be managed solely by the NHS. 

And one in every three people (33.6 per cent) who died of any cause between April 4 and April 10 had coronavirus. 

That week, authorities recorded the most deaths for a single week in 20 years, with 18,516 people dying – 8,000 more than average. Around 6,200 of those were officially linked to the coronavirus, suggesting a further 1,800 were indirect ‘excess’ deaths or COVID-19 sufferers who never got tested.

The record number of fatalities coincides with what now appears to have been the peak of the UK’s COVID-19 outbreak on April 8, when NHS hospitals recorded 803 coronavirus patients dying.

A leading expert at the University of Oxford argued yesterday that the peak was actually about a month ago, a week before lockdown started on March 23, and that the draconian measures people are now living with were unnecessary.

Professor Carl Heneghan claims data shows infection rates halved after the Government launched a public information campaign on March 16 urging people to wash their hands and keep two metres (6’6′) away from others. 

He said ministers ‘lost sight’ of the evidence and rushed into a nationwide quarantine six days later after being instructed by scientific advisers who he claims have been ‘consistently wrong’ during the crisis. 

Professor Heneghan hailed Sweden – which has not enforced a lockdown despite fierce criticism – for ‘holding its nerve’ and avoiding a ‘doomsday scenario’.  

He was among a group of scientists today who argued that the peak in the number of coronavirus deaths in England and Wales happened on April 8.

Commenting on the death data released by the ONS, a panel convened by the Science Media Centre said the death rate had been consistent for the last 13 days.

Prof Heneghan said: ‘From an epidemiological perspective we can say that the numbers are consistent with the peak happening on April 8.

‘We’ve now tracked for 13 days that that has been consistent – it hasn’t jumped up.

‘All of the other data surrounding this, the triangulation of the data is showing us that is the case.’

But he added: ‘What we are worried about is that in the background someone has made an error and pulled out some data sets.

‘Looking at what the ONS are doing now is hugely impressive – I think we can be clear that in this peak it occurred on April 8 and in the last 13 days we’ve seen no change to that.’

The House of Commons returned from its Easter recess today – but only to approve a plan for ‘virtual’ sittings, with MPs expected to grill First Secretary Dominic Raab over Zoom tomorrow  

BRITAIN’S CORONAVIRUS CRISIS MAY NOT PLUMMET TO LEVELS SEEN IN AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND FOR MONTHS

Britain’s coronavirus outbreak may not plummet to levels seen in Australia and New Zealand for months, data suggests. 

Figures from the Our World in Data project shows Australia’s recorded more than one new case for every million people for a fortnight. 

It eventually peaked on March 27 at 17.56 but analysis shows it has yet to dip below the one mark 25 days later. 

IT MAY NOT DROP DRAMATICALLY UNTIL MID-JUNE…

If the same outbreak trajectory was applied to the UK, it would mean Britain’s rate of cases per million people would not dip below one for another 10 weeks.

For example, Britain’s cases peaked on April 13, with 94 positive tests for every one million people. 

It took 32 days for Britain to reach its peak from passing one new case per a million people – 2.3 times longer than Australia.

Simple maths would suggest it could take the UK 2.3 times longer than Australia to dip below the same threshold, if it miraculously followed the same path.

Such an equation would result in Britain getting back to fewer than one case per a million people each day by mid-June. 

…BUT IT COULD DROP IN A MATTER OF WEEKS 

But if the UK’s outbreak took a similar trajectory as New Zealand, the cases could dip much sooner.

For example, New Zealand’s rate was also higher than one for 14 days before hitting the peak (15.97) on March 31.

However, the Our World in Data statistics show it took the country just 16 days to get the rate below one again.

Using that same equation, it would mean it would take fewer than three weeks for Britain’s curve to dip below one.

ANOTHER INTERPRETATION OF THE DATA SUGGESTS IT COULD PEAK BY MID-MAY 

Britain’s outbreak would potentially be over sooner if it followed similar percentage drops as seen in Australia and New Zealand.

For instance, the Our World in Data analysis shows that Australia’s cases per million halved in eight days, dropping to 8.72 on April 3. 

It then took four days to halve again (3.87 on April 7) and then a week to drop two-fold again (1.67 on April 14).

Using the same figures for the UK, it would mean Britain’s cases per million would have halved by April 21. 

They would then halve again by April 25 and then dropped two-fold again by May 2 – at this point the rate would be around 11 to 12.  

From this point, it took New Zealand 16 days to dip below one – 16 days from May 2 would take the UK to May 18. 

But Australia’s has still yet to dip below one again – 20 days after the rate was less than 12, suggesting it could take even longer. 

BRITAIN’S OWN DATA SUGGESTS IT WON’T DIP TO AUSTRALIA LEVELS UNTIL THE END OF JULY 

But Britain’s outbreak did not follow the same percentage trajectory. Instead they fell by just 16 per cent, from 94.21 to 78.81, over that eight-day period.

If the figures dropped 16 per cent every eight days, it would that mean Britain’s crisis would not dip below the one case per million mark until the end of July.

One new case per million people would be the equivalent of around 60 a day in the UK – a rate still five times higher than that seen currently in South Korea.

For example, official figures from South Korea – which never imposed a lockdown – show the country recorded just nine new cases today.

Top scientists praised the country’s rigorous testing and tracing regime, which saw health chiefs contain the crisis which peaked at the end of February.  

However, epidemiologists say there is no accurate way of predicting the demise of an outbreak because no two crises are the same. 

Several different factors are at play in causing a reduction in the number of cases, including lockdowns and testing regimes. 

WHAT ABOUT WHEN LOOKING AT DEATHS? 

Using the same set of figures but for deaths paints a similarly bleak picture – neither Australia or New Zealand ever had a rate higher than 0.35 per million.

The UK’s rate exceeded this mark on March 20 – and kept accelerating for 22 days until peaking on April 11 (13.74).

It took 10 days to drop to 9.49 – the equivalent of a 31 per cent decline. It suggests it would take 40 days to get to around two deaths per million.

But Australia has only recorded 71 deaths and New Zealand 13, meaning their death rates are not able to be accurately compared to Britain.  

Leading statisticians say the decline in COVID-19 outbreaks is never as sharp as the spike, meaning the curve down will not be symmetrical. 

WHY DO AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND HAVE DIFFERENT SIZED OUTBREAKS? 

Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, said Australia and New Zealand had their epidemic in the summer.

He told MailOnline: ‘Although we don’t know for certain whether this disease will have a seasonality, I’m more convinced now than I was.

‘I expect it to be less infectious during the summer. [They] haven’t had exposure at the same sort of time of the year and that might have a big impact.’ 

New Zealand imposed a lockdown on March 23. At the time, it had around 150 cases. Australia had fewer than 1,000 cases when it shut its borders.

The UK had more than 6,000 cases when it imposed its lockdown on March 23 – but had given up on testing all patients, instead only swabbing those hospitalised.

It suggests the virus was circulating much more widely in Britain – and still will be – than in either of its counterparts in the Southern Hemisphere.

HOW MANY NEW CASES WILL BRITAIN RECORD BY THE END OF THE LOCKDOWN? 

Professor Hunter pointed to the outbreak in Italy, which peaked at around 6,000 new cases a day on March 23 – but is now below 3,000.

He added that it is ‘achievable’ for the UK to get down to fewer than 2,000 cases a day by the end of the three-week lockdown extension.

And he said ministers would likely ease some strict measures by then but warned Britons not to get their hopes up for festivals and sports matches.

Professor Hunter told MailOnline: ‘Care homes won’t have restrictions removed any time soon, in my view.

‘And we’re not going to go back to large-scale public gatherings any time soon, so your Glastonbury tickets are worthless.

‘But there may be other aspects we can relax without putting us at particular risk… small family gatherings might be allowed.