The Biden administration estimates the United States could see 100 million COVID-19 infections and a wave of deaths during the coming fall and winter of 2022, according to the Washington Post. The projection comes as the U.S. teeters on the brink of 1 million COVID-19 deaths: The latest count from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) totals 995,371 known fatalities at the time of publication. A senior administration official shared the prediction for next fall and winter on Friday, according to the Post, and said it underscored the need for more funding for vaccines, tests, and treatments. The official didn’t present new data with the prediction, per the Post.
The news raises questions about what’s ahead in the coming months, with more transmissible subvariants circulating and case counts continuing to steadily rise. The most dominant variant in the U.S. as of the end of April was BA.2, a subvariant of omicron, which made up nearly 62% of cases, per the CDC. The second most dominant variant, a subvariant of BA.2, is BA.2.12.1, which made up 36.5% of cases. As the virus evolves, it’s getting better at spreading, experts say.
“Each subsequent variant is more transmissible,” Daniel Culver, DO, a chair of the department of pulmonary medicine at Cleveland Clinic, tells SELF. “BA.2.12.1 seems to be even more transmissible than BA.2,” which is even more transmissible than the original omicron variant and delta as well, Dr. Culver says.
Rising case counts highlight the transmissibility: In the U.S., the average positive test rate was 2.5% at the beginning of April; as of May 7th it was 7.8%, according to data from Mayo Clinic. And the stats are probably even higher than we know, due to the way most are getting tested now, Dr. Culver says. Instead of going to a clinic for a PCR test, the result of which is then logged so that public health experts can monitor community spread, many people are testing themselves at home and never sharing their results with a government body or research organization that can track COVID-19 cases. “The numbers are very underestimated right now,” Dr. Culver says. “So many are doing home tests that are never reported to any public health authority.”
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Before widespread immunization efforts, the above factors might have resulted in a lockdown, similar to those implemented during the early days of the pandemic. However, experts advise against jumping to the conclusion that we’re headed for another shutdown, and they stress the crucial differences between early 2020 and now. Namely, many Americans have received safe and effective vaccines that help prevent severe disease and hospitalization for many people. Plus, many people have already been infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, providing them with some level of immunity, Jennifer Lighter, MD, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at NYU Langone, tells SELF. The Biden administration’s prediction that the fall and winter could bring 100 million COVID-19 infections was likely based on vaccination rates and the threat of future variants, Dr. Lighter (who is not connected to the Biden administration) says, but “it doesn’t mean we’re going back to two years ago. We do have the tools now to prevent severe disease.”
That said, we can minimize the toll COVID-19 will take in the future by using those tools (or, in other words, getting vaccinated when eligible), Dr. Lighter says: “There’s an underutilization of these tools.” Getting vaccinated can lower the future death toll and help keep hospitals functioning, she explains. “If we want to thwart off another big wave, the one way to do that is through increasing our vaccination gaps.”
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Source: SELF
