The Government today launched a hard-hitting Covid advertising blitz which warns people ‘don’t let a coffee cost lives’ as ministers warn police will tackle people flouting the lockdown amid a mass crackdown.
No10 released two new posters this evening, with one showing masked people queuing outside while a caption claims that around one in three people are carrying coronavirus with no symptoms.
The red and yellow ad warns: ‘If you’re getting a takeaway coffee, remember to wash your hands, cover your face and keep your distance’ – before urging people to ‘stay home, protect the NHS and save lives’.
A second poster shows a group of friends laughing on a park bench together before claiming ‘catch-ups cost lives’ and instructing Britons not to ‘bend the rules’ – while a third ad depicting joggers says ‘exercise safely, don’t run the risk’.
It comes as Priti Patel said police forces have seen ‘dreadful’ breaches of coronavirus regulations, with police breaking up several illegal raves last night including one held on a London roof-top.
Officers in the capital were said to be ‘astounded’ after being called to break up a party at an industrial unit in Southwark last night, where they found at least 20 revellers on top of the building.
A party of up to 100 people was also broken up by police in a Hertfordshire village, where alcohol was seized. The events were branded ‘completely unacceptable’ by police who issued Covid fines and made several arrests.
Appearing on ITV’s This Morning, Ms Patel said the Government was not intending to make the lockdown tougher over the next few days – but she underlined there will be harsher enforcement and said police were having to ‘break up some really dreadful situations where people are breaching the rules’.
‘It is important that we enforce these rules. Your viewers will see more police officers out and about,’ she said. ‘The rules are clear and the majority of the British public are following the rules.’
Pointing to the huge death toll yesterday, she said most people understood the need to ‘stop the spread of the virus’. ‘The police will continue to issue fines and enforce against people who are flagrantly breaching the rules,’ she said.
On another day of coronavirus carnage:
- Sadiq Khan has complained that London is not getting its ‘fair share’ of vaccine after a local breakdown of where the doses have been administered was released;
- Ministers faced accusations of failing to protect the UK today as they finally banned flights from South America and Portugal days after a new Covid super-strain emerged;
- A requirement for UK arrivals to have tested negative within the previous 72 hours, announced last week and due to come into force tomorrow, has been delayed until Monday;
- People previously infected with the coronavirus have more protection against reinfection five months later than people getting the Oxford vaccine, and the same level of immunity that is provided by the Pfizer jab, a Public Health England (PHE) study has found;
- A total of 4.46million people were waiting to start hospital treatment in England at the end of November, the highest since records began;
- Boots and Superdrug have started dishing out coronavirus vaccines this morning after No10 finally turned to the high street to deliver its lockdown-ending promise of immunising almost 14million people by mid-February.
No10 released two new posters this evening, with one showing masked people queuing outside while a caption claims that around one in three people are carrying coronavirus with no symptoms and saying ‘don’t let a coffee cost lives’
A second poster shows a group of friends laughing on a park bench together, before claiming ‘catch-ups cost lives’ and instructing Britons not to ‘bend the rules’ amid increasing signs of lockdown fatigue
A third Covid ad released by No10 today depicting joggers instructs people: ‘Exercise safely, don’t run the risk’
‘Astounded’ officers in the capital were called to break up a party of 20 people having a rave on a roof-top in Southwark, South East London
It comes as the UK recorded the highest Covid death toll since the start of the pandemic
Priti Patel warned police are ready to tackle people flouting lockdown rules as she said they were seeing ‘dreadful’ breaches
Pointing to the huge death toll yesterday, Ms Patel said most people understood the need to ‘stop the spread of the virus’
Inspector Kio Bozorgi of Hertfordshire Police said: ‘This is completely unacceptable behaviour.
‘With daily deaths over 1000, there is no good excuse to be breaking the lockdown rules.’
The parties were held illegally during the national lockdown with restrictions requiring people to stay at home in a bid to curb the spread of coronavirus.
It comes as the UK recorded the highest Covid death toll since the start of the pandemic.
After the UK recorded a further 1,564 victims yesterday, science chef Sir Patrick warned the UK is in for a ‘pretty grim period’ as deaths will not fall for ‘some weeks’.
In London last night officers were called out to reports of loud music coming from the roof by disgusted residents.
Many cheered the police on when they arrived to break up the illegal gathering on Pages Walk, Southwark.
Officers found more than 20 people drinking, eating and playing music, leaving one officer ‘astounded’ at the rule-breaking.
Two people were arrested, including one individual on suspicion of carrying an offensive weapon, while another was arrested for suspected drug dealing.
A further five people were handed fines for breaching Covid restrictions before the party was fully dispersed around 11.30pm.
A similar event was also broken up in Hertfordshire last night, where officers were called out to an address in South Mimms.
Up to 100 people were said to have gathered at the home, which police suggested was rented accommodation.
Police seized alcohol and music equipment from the partygoers and one officer was injured while trying to break up the party, leading to an arrest.
Covid fines were also handed out to the offenders breaching Covid rules.
The gathering happened in the Hertsmere district which is currently the second worst-hit area in the county with 950 people testing positive in the last week, Hertfordshire Live reports.
The force’s Inspector Kio Bozorgi said: ‘This is completely unacceptable behaviour and I would like to reassure the community that action is being taken. Police have a variety of powers to their disposal which include powers of entry into premises to disrupt such activity.
‘With daily deaths over 1000, there is no good excuse to be breaking the lockdown rules.
‘We all have a duty to protect our NHS and help save lives and I would like to take this opportunity to remind residents to do the right thing and respect the rules.
‘Further enquiries will take place to establish the circumstances of this incident but I would like to remind you that renting accommodation in order to have a music event or gathering is not tolerated at this present time and lease holders found responsible will be prosecuted.’
Releasing details of the incident, a spokesperson from Hertfordshire Constabulary said in a statement: ‘Officers have received a number of reports this evening of a large gathering at an address in Blanche Lane, South Mimms.
‘Officers are currently at the scene and issuing COVID fines. Music equipment and alcohol have been seized and a Section 35 dispersal order has been put in place.
A seven-minute video captured at Asda in Cape Hill, Smethwick, yesterday included least 16 people not wearing masks – although people do not need to wear one if they have an exemption under the rules
In London last night officers were called out to reports of loud music coming from the roof by disgusted residents
Officers found more than 20 people drinking, eating and playing music, leaving one officer ‘astounded’ at the rule-breaking
Two people were arrested, including one individual on suspicion of carrying an offensive weapon, while another was arrested for suspected drug dealing
Police also broke up a gathering of up to 100 people in Blanche Lane, in the Hertfordshire village of South Mimms, last night
‘Outraged’ couple hit back at ‘ridiculous’ officer who fined them £60 for visiting wife’s mother in Welsh care home after police cancel penalty
A couple have hit back at a police officer who fined them £60 for visiting the wife’s mother in a Welsh care home after the force cancelled their penalty.
Carol Richards, 68, and her husband David, 66, from Bridgend, travelled 10 miles to visit dementia sufferer Decima Minhinnick at Picton Court Care Home.
They were reprimanded by police on the way back despite having received permission to see Ms Minhinnick and handed a £60 penalty.
South Wales Police have now rescinded the fine after reviewing the incident, following a public backlash to the growing war on shutdown flouters.
Speaking this morning, Mrs Richards described the incident as ‘ridiculous’, adding that she was left feeling ‘really upset’ and ‘outraged’.
Carol Richards’ mother, Decima Minhinnick, pictured at her 90th birthday party. Mrs Richards and her husband David travelled 10 miles to visit her at Picton Court Care Home
Referring to the female police officer, she told ITV’s Good Morning Britain: ‘I think she basically said it’s a non-essential visit.
‘But I sort of said then ‘we’ve been visiting my mum, we’ve been outside in a car park and I’ve been waving to her through the window’ and she said ‘well we’d all like to wave to our mothers through the window’.
‘I thought my goodness, this is a bit ridiculous, I said ‘look, she’s got vascular dementia, she’s living in a care home, I’ve been outside, nobody and has been around and I’ve just been waving to her.’
‘But she wasn’t engaged with me, she just ordered me, and I started to feel really upset and also outraged.’
In a tweet posted yesterday, South Wales Police said: ‘Police in Porthcawl issued a fixed penalty notice to a man who had travelled from his home in Penyfai to visit a relative on Sunday (10 January).
‘The circumstances of the journey and the issuing of the fine have since been reviewed and the notice has been rescinded. The individual concerned has been notified.
<!—->Advertisement
‘A person has also been arrested after an officer was injured while dealing with the incident.’
Concerning the event in London, a Metropolitan Police spokesperson said: ‘Police were called at around 22:25hrs on Wednesday, 13 January to reports of a group of people gathering at a location in Pages Walk, SE1. Officers attended.
‘A number of people were found inside a unit on an industrial estate.
‘A small number of people were on the roof.
‘Five people were issued Fixed Penalty Notice fines for breaching Covid regulations.
‘Two people were arrested – one on suspicion of possession of an offensive weapon, and one for obstruction and possession with intent to supply class A and B drugs.
‘Both were taken into custody. The remainder of those present were dispersed by around 23:30hrs.’
In another sign of the concern about people’s behaviour, access to a beauty spot in Norfolk has been restricted.
The coastal car park and access road at Horsey, a popular spot for watching seals, has been shut in a bid to deter visitors.
Five people from Hertfordshire, Northamptonshire and Essex have been fined for breaking lockdown regulations there over the past week.
Robin Buxton, from the Horsey Estate, said: ‘We all have a part to play in keeping people safe and following discussion with the police and council, we’re happy to close the car park to deter people from visiting.’
Despite her tough line on enforcement, Ms Patel seemed confused about coronavirus rules during her This Morning interview as she stressed the importance of exercising alone.
The guidance makes clear that in England someone is allowed to exercise outdoors with one other person from a different household.
Asked about the rules, Ms Patel told ITV’s This Morning: ‘The clarity is exercising on your own and not socialising.’
She added: ‘The point to make about any exercise – yes, it should be local, people exercise differently.
‘But exercise on your own and don’t use it for a social meeting.’
She said ‘cycling is fine, because you are on your own, you should not be cycling with other people’.
Ms Patel continued: ‘Running, exactly in the same way because you are on your own, walking on your own.’
England could escape tougher lockdown measures for now after science chief Patrick Vallance suggested the current measures are ‘enough’ to control the mutant Covid strain and Neil Ferguson pointed to a ‘plateau’ in hospital admissions.
Mr Johnson is set to hold off tightening the rules despite soaring deaths and Nicola Sturgeon imposing extra curbs in Scotland, as experts welcomed a ‘flattening’ in the number of new infections.
After the UK recorded its deadliest toll yet with 1,564 victims, Sir Patrick warned last night that the UK is in for a ‘pretty grim period’ as deaths will not fall for ‘some weeks’.
But he also indicated that the case rate was more encouraging, with a run of four days of week-on-week falls.
Sir Patrick said: ‘I think what we know now, which we didn’t know a few weeks ago, was would these sorts of restrictions be enough to bring this virus under control with the new variant? And the answer is yes, it looks like it is, and things are at least flattening off in some places, not everywhere.’
Professor Ferguson – whose modelling is reputed to have triggered the first lockdown in March – said this morning that the growth rate was slowing nationally, and in some NHS regions there were ‘signs of plateauing’.
He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: ‘It looks like in London in particular and a couple of other regions in the South East and East of England, hospital admissions may even have plateaued, though it is hard to tell if they are coming down.
‘It has to be said this is not seen everywhere – both case numbers and hospital admissions are going up in many other areas, but overall at a national level we are seeing the rate of growth slow.’
The powerful Covid O Cabinet committee is due to meet today to consider the state of play, including signing off a travel ban from South America due to fears over an emerging super-strain in Brazil. However, it is not expected to ramp up the lockdown in England.
Priti Patel said this morning that the Government is not bringing in new social distancing restrictions ‘today or tomorrow’.
In a series of appearances yesterday, Mr Johnson refused to rule out extra measures, but hailed ‘early’ signs that coronavirus is coming back under control.
The PM insisted the measures in England were being kept ‘under constant review’ as Labour demanded to know why they were looser than last spring despite cases being higher.
He warned that the NHS was at ‘substantial risk’ of being swamped, and the ‘only way’ of protecting it was to follow the ‘current rules’.
But despite the mounting death toll, Mr Johnson sounded a notably optimistic tone about the emerging impact of the restrictions.
He said the country was ‘now starting to see the beginnings of some signs’ that the crackdown was having an effect in parts of the country, while stressing it was ‘early days’ and urged people to ‘keep their discipline’.
MailOnline analysis suggests the outbreak in England may have started slowing before the blanket lockdown on January 4, with infection numbers peaking in the worst-hit regions at the start of the year. The tide appears to have turned in parts of the country experiencing the worst outbreaks – London, the South East and the East of England – in the first week of 2021, with cases coming down since then.
Coronavirus hospital admissions have also started to fall in London and the South East, although the numbers of patients are still rising on wards after surging above the peaks recorded in the first wave.
Ms Patel said earlier this week that a minority of the public were ‘putting the health of the nation at risk’ as she backed a tougher police approach to lockdown rules.
Speaking at a Downing Street press briefing on Tuesday, she said officers are moving more quickly to issuing fines where people are clearly breaching coronavirus regulations, with nearly 45,000 fixed penalty notices issued across the UK since March.
Chairman of the National Police Chiefs’ Council Martin Hewitt said that more officers will be out on dedicated patrols to deal with rule breakers,
He gave examples of recent breaches including another party in Hertfordshire where more than 40 people had each paid £30 each for a ticket to a boat party.
A minibus full of people from different households was also caught travelling from Cheltenham to Wales for a walk.
More proof Britain could be beating Covid: PHE figures reveal cases were falling in EVERY age group except over 80s last week and infections dropped in all but three English regions – as Boris drops plans to tighten lockdown this weekend
There were more tentative signs the UK is turning the tide on coronavirus today with figures showing infections were falling in every age group except the over-80s last week – and cases were dropping in all but three English regions.
The latest Public Health England surveillance update also found that infections were decreasing in all regions except the North West, South West and West Midlands in the week up to January 10.
Although the case rates remain high, it suggests that the escalation of the tiering system was already having an effect on the outbreak, as the blanket England-wide lockdown did not begin until January 4.
Separate modelling by Cambridge University scientists — whose warnings of 4,000 deaths a day spooked No10 into imposing England’s second lockdown — bolstered claims that the original restrictions were working, saying cases began to drop on December 21. The team also believe deaths will peak ‘over the coming days’.
The findings will be welcome news for Boris Johnson, who is set to hold off tightening the rules despite soaring deaths and Nicola Sturgeon imposing extra curbs in Scotland.
As the death toll mounted, science chief Sir Patrick Vallance warned last night that the UK is in for a ‘pretty grim period’ as fatalities will not fall for ‘some weeks’ and the NHS is under serious pressure. But he also indicated that the case rate was more encouraging, with a series of week-on-week falls.
London continues to have the highest rate of any region, at 864.9 per 100,000 people, down from 1,043.9 in the previous week. Yorkshire & the Humber still has the lowest case rate at 297.2, down from 309.9.
In another positive sign, the proportion of positive tests declined in the week up to January 10. According to PHE, test positivity was 13.3 per cent last week, down from 17.5 per cent. Test positivity is a crucial way to monitor the outbreak because it takes into account fluctuations in the number of swabs carried out each day.
But despite the positive trends in cases, the PHE surveillance report found hospitalisations, ICU admissions and mortality continued to increase.
The three-week lag between someone catching Covid and falling seriously ill means these figures are likely to climb for another fortnight.
On another day of coronavirus carnage:
- Sadiq Khan has complained that London is not getting its ‘fair share’ of vaccine after a local breakdown of where the doses have been administered was released;
- Ministers faced accusations of failing to protect the UK today as they finally banned flights from South America and Portugal days after a new Covid super-strain emerged;
- A requirement for UK arrivals to have tested negative within the previous 72 hours, announced last week and due to come into force tomorrow, has been delayed until Monday;
- People previously infected with the coronavirus have more protection against reinfection five months later than people getting the Oxford vaccine, and the same level of immunity that is provided by the Pfizer jab, a Public Health England (PHE) study has found;
- A total of 4.46million people were waiting to start hospital treatment in England at the end of November, the highest since records began;
- Boots and Superdrug have started dishing out coronavirus vaccines this morning after No10 finally turned to the high street to deliver its lockdown-ending promise of immunising almost 14million people by mid-February.
The latest PHE surveillance update shows an improvement in the outbreak in the week up to January 10
Sir Patrick Vallance (right) warned last night that the UK is in for a ‘pretty grim period’ as deaths will not fall for ‘some weeks’, but he indicated that the case rate was more encouraging. Professor Ferguson (left) – whose modelling is reputed to have triggered the first lockdown in March – said this morning that the growth rate was slowing nationally, and in some NHS regions there were ‘signs of plateauing’
Professor Ferguson – whose modelling is reputed to have triggered the first lockdown in March – said this morning that the growth rate was slowing nationally, and in some NHS regions there were ‘signs of plateauing’.
He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: ‘It looks like in London in particular and a couple of other regions in the South East and East of England, hospital admissions may even have plateaued, though it is hard to tell if they are coming down.
‘It has to be said this is not seen everywhere – both case numbers and hospital admissions are going up in many other areas, but overall at a national level we are seeing the rate of growth slow.’
Sir Patrick said: ‘I think what we know now, which we didn’t know a few weeks ago, was would these sorts of restrictions be enough to bring this virus under control with the new variant? And the answer is yes, it looks like it is, and things are at least flattening off in some places, not everywhere.’
The powerful Covid O Cabinet committee met today to consider the state of play, including signing off a travel ban from South America due to fears over an emerging super-strain in Brazil. However, it did not ramp up the lockdown in England.
Priti Patel confirmed this morning that the Government is not bringing in new social distancing restrictions ‘today or tomorrow’. There are claims ministers are instead focusing on improving compliance, with reports an ad campaign could deliver alarming messages such as: ‘Grabbing a coffee could kill.’
In a series of appearances yesterday, Mr Johnson refused to rule out extra measures, but hailed ‘early’ signs that coronavirus is coming back under control.
The PM insisted the measures in England were being kept ‘under constant review’ as Labour demanded to know why they were looser than last spring despite cases being higher.
He warned that the NHS was at ‘substantial risk’ of being swamped, and the ‘only way’ of protecting it was to follow the ‘current rules’.
READ RELATED: Vitamin B12 deficiency: The peculiar warning sign that can appear on the side of the body
But despite the mounting death toll, Mr Johnson sounded a notably optimistic tone about the emerging impact of the restrictions.
He said the country was ‘now starting to see the beginnings of some signs’ that the crackdown was having an effect in parts of the country, while stressing it was ‘early days’ and urged people to ‘keep their discipline’.
Data from Cambridge University’s ‘Nowcast’ modelling team seems to back up suggestions that cases were starting to come down at the start of the year.
Their analysis of deaths and hospital admissions suggests that coronavirus infections for England as a whole peaked at 117,000 per day on December 21 and have been falling almost consistently since to 60,200 per day by January 8.
The researchers, who work alongside Public Health England, suggested that infections remained high and rising in the East Midlands, North East, North West and South West into the New Year.
But in other areas where lockdowns were tougher in December, including the East of England, London and the South East – as well as the West Midlands and Yorkshire & The Humber – infections appeared to have started tumbling after Christmas.
Modelling by the University of Cambridge, which is used by Public Health England and SAGE, suggests that the overall infection rate in England started to decline on December 21 when it peaked at 117,000 per day
They estimated that there are between 2,500 and 6,500 infections per day in the East, London, North East, South East, South West, West Midlands and Yorkshire & The Humber, but a significantly higher 16,300 per day in the North West.
The team make their calculations, which are fed into SAGE, by looking at confirmed Covid-19 deaths and the death rate, which can lead to estimates of earlier case counts, blood testing to look for numbers of past infections, and also officially recorded positive tests.
Their work has been controversial in the past after they predicted that England could hit 4,000 deaths per day at a peak in December and Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Chris Whitty used the terrifying number at a press conference. Scientists roundly dismissed the figure and the Cambridge team later reduced it significantly to fewer than 1,000.
Home Secretary Priti Patel, appearing on ITV’s This Morning today, stressed that ministers are focusing on increasing the enforcement of current restrictions to keep the spread of coronavirus down rather than bringing in new measures.
She said: ‘The plans are very much to enforce the rules. This isn’t about new rules coming in, we’re going to stick with enforcing the current measures. We are not thinking about bringing in new measures today or tomorrow.’
Speaking to ITV’s Peston programme last night, Sir Patrick said: ‘The daily numbers jump around a bit but I think we are in a position now – when you look at the number of infections we’ve had over the past few weeks and how this is likely to continue, so I don’t think they’re going to drop very quickly – that I’m afraid we’re in a period of high death numbers that’s going to carry on for some weeks.
‘It’s not going to come down quickly even if the measures that are in place now start to reduce the infection numbers. So we’re in for a pretty grim period, I’m afraid.’
The three deadliest days of Britain’s Covid crisis have all been recorded in 2021, with today’s figure topping the 1,325 last Friday.
But deaths always lag weeks behind cases, meaning fatality counts won’t begin to drop until at least a fortnight after infections fall.
Public Health England bosses said there had now been ‘more deaths in the second wave than the first’.
But Government statistics also suggest the UK’s outbreak is finally starting to slow.
Priti Patel said this morning that the Government is not bringing in new social distancing restrictions ‘today or tomorrow’
Sir Patrick did not rule out the need for tougher restrictions to help bring infection rates down further across the UK, but said current rules are clearly having some impact on the numbers.
He explained: ‘I think we follow these [rules], the evidence we have so far is this is beginning to work, holding it flat, beginning to potentially push it down.
‘We need to monitor it and you know it may be that we need more on top of this at some point, I’m absolutely not ruling that out.
‘It may be that we need more on top of this, and I think those obviously are decisions that ministers would need to make. But I think at the moment the evidence is that this is having an effect.’
The PM was grilled at PMQs and then by the cross-party Liaison Committee yesterday as he faced another barrage of demands for the national clampdown to be tightened even further – something that Nicola Sturgeon has announced is happening in Scotland.
Speaking to MPs, the Prime Minister said he was ‘concerned’ about the new Brazilian variant of the virus.
‘We already have tough measures, as you know, to stop from new infections come from abroad. We are taking steps to do that in response to the Brazilian variation.’
It is still yet to be identified in the UK, and there is no evidence that it causes a more severe infection than other strains – although there are fears it may be as transmissible as the Kent strain.
It is normal for viruses to mutate and early signs don’t suggest that any of the new variants of coronavirus are more deadly than others, but in some places it is evolving to be able to spread faster.
If the virus is faster spreading it will inevitably lead to more cases which will in turn lead to a higher death count, even if the strain itself isn’t more dangerous.
During the Committee, the Prime Minister also warned parents he still wasn’t sure whether schools would be allowed to re-open after the February half-term.
When asked if they would re-open next month, he said: ‘The priority is obviously to get schools open as soon as possible, whether we can do that after the half term depends on a number of things. The success of the vaccination process, depends on us not finding out the South African or Brazilian variants are vaccine resistant.
‘We have no evidence that they are, but that’s got to go well. But the crucial thing is the lockdown measures have to go well. What we are seeing today is some early signs of progress in containing the virus, but it is far, far too early to say if we can see any relaxation in February.’
Downing Street is considering options ranging from limiting takeaways and click and collect, to closing more workplaces and nurseries and banning people from exercising with friends.
Scientists have cautioned that critical capacity in the NHS will still be under enormous strain into March due to the lag between infection and people getting ill, with up to 250,000 people a day said to be catching the virus.
London Councils and Mayor Sadiq Khan yesterday appealed for Mr Johnson to bring in new measures such as closing places of worship immediately, or risk putting an ‘unsustainable strain’ on services.
Mr Khan lamented a ‘heartbreaking’ coronavirus milestone as it was confirmed more than 10,000 Londoners have fallen victim to the virus.
The latest data from Public Health England shows a total of 10,353 people in London have died within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test.
A further 7,606 people across the capital are currently in hospital with the disease – 35 per cent higher than the busiest day of the pandemic in the spring.
Ms Sturgeon told the Scottish Parliament yesterday that from Saturday she is banning drinking outdoors and non-essential click-and-collect, as well as going inside eateries to pick up a takeaway.
Earlier, Mr Hancock defied mounting Tory calls to guarantee that the draconian restrictions will be eased from March 8 – around three weeks after the government is due to have vaccinated the 14million most vulnerable.
But in a glimmer of hope data from the Department of Health suggests England’s outbreak may have started to slow down before the national lockdown started on January 4, as infection numbers appeared to peak in the worst-hit regions at the start of the year.
Millions living in London, the South East and East of England were forced into gruelling Tier 4 restrictions the weekend before Christmas, scuppering festive plans for millions as ministers tried to get a grip on the new variant of the virus.
And in the first week of January the region’s infection rates began to drop, suggesting the highest level of measures may have been enough to thwart the spread of the super-infectious mutant strain.
It can take up to two weeks for someone who is infected with the virus to start showing symptoms, get a test and then receive a positive result, meaning there is a lag before the impact of restrictions shows up in the data.
In another positive sign the second wave may be waning, data also shows hospital admissions in London and the East of England peaked in the days after lockdown was imposed.
Department of Health statistics appear to show London’s hit their peak on January 6 – on day two of the shutdown – when the seven-day average stood at 864. It dropped to 845 the following day. In the South East, hospitalisations also peaked on January 6 when they reached 662.
And in the East of England – which was plunged into the highest bracket of restrictions at the same time – they had started to level off by January 4.
It can take weeks for someone infected with the virus to suffer symptoms severe enough to be admitted to hospital, meaning there is a delay between a drop in cases and hospitalisations. But the early downturn adds to claims that Tier 4 – which kept schools open – was enough to control the mutant variant.
Even as they slowed across the capital and in regions first plunged into the toughest bracket, however, the number of patients in hospital continued to rise because the number of new cases needing treatment each day is still high.
And hospital admissions for patients suffering from the virus are also continuing to rise in the South West, North West, North East and Midlands.
Despite the drops, hospital admissions remain above the highest levels seen during the darkest days of the first wave and in the final month of last year – in a warning sign health care staff could yet be overwhelmed.
In London they stood at 150 at the start of December before soaring upwards, and never went above 750 in April. For the South East, they stood at 165 in December, and never moved above 323 in the first wave.
It’s still too soon for the effects of national lockdown to show up reliably in data but cases starting to come down in some of the worst-affected places suggests that Tier 4 rules were working before they were abandoned.
Some Government scientists fear, however, the true case rate is still running at more than 250,000 a day. They have warned the Prime Minister that, even with the rollout of the vaccine, the death rate may not start to fall until the middle of next month.
Despite the more positive news on infections, Sir Keir goaded Mr Johnson at PMQs yesterday that he was already too late toughening the rules.
‘The next big decision is obvious, the current restrictions are not strong enough to control the virus,’ he said.
‘Can the Prime Minister tell us when infection rates are much higher than in March, when hospital admissions are much higher than last March, when death rates are much higher than last March, why on earth are restrictions weaker than last March?’
Mr Johnson responded: ‘We keep things under constant review and we will continue to do so.
‘And certainly if there is any need to toughen up restrictions, which I don’t rule out, we will of course come to this House.’
But he also highlighted the ‘serious damage that is done by lockdowns’.
‘The lockdown measures we have in place combined with tier four measures that we were using are starting to show signs of some effect and we must take account of that too,’ Mr Johnson said.
Sir Keir took the premier to task for being ‘slow to act’ when infection rates began to surge in December.
‘The last PMQs was on December 16,’ the Labour leader said. ‘The Prime Minister told us then that we were seeing, in his words, a significant reduction in the virus. He told us then that there was no need for endless lockdowns and no need to change the rules about Christmas mixing.
‘Since then, since that last PMQs, 17,000 people have died of Covid, 60,000 people have been admitted to hospital and there has been over a million new cases. How did the Prime Minister get it so wrong and why was he so slow to act?’
But a clearly infuriated Mr Johnson shot back: ‘Of course, what (Sir Keir) fails to point out is that on December 18, two days later, the Government was informed of the spread of the new variant and the fact that it spreads roughly 50-70 per cent faster than the old variant, and that is why it is indeed correct to say that the situation today is very troubling indeed.’
He added: ‘This is the toughest of times, but we can see the way forward.’
Rates of coronavirus have continued to surge in Liverpool, which was only in the unusually lenient Tier 2 before Christmas
Cases in Kent appear to have come down as a result of Tier 4, at first over Christmas and then again in early January, but they spiked in the middle around new year, suggesting the restrictions weren’t working well enough to satisfy the Government
Why DO experts say the outbreak is slowing if the death toll is continuing to soar? How 21-day lag between getting infected and becoming severely ill means fatalities won’t peak for another fortnight
Prominent SAGE scientists claimed today Britain’s winter coronavirus wave is flattening after cases fell for four days straight — despite the country recording its worst death toll ever on Wednesday.
Another 1,564 more Covid fatalities were announced yesterday across the UK in the deadliest day since the pandemic began, with the total number of laboratory-confirmed victims on track to pass the grisly 100,000 mark by February.
But Sir Patrick Vallance, No10’s chief scientific officer, and Professor Neil Ferguson, whose modelling plunged the UK into its first lockdown in March, said there are ‘early signs’ the third national shutdown is slowing the crisis.
They have pointed to the fact that, nationally, the number of people catching Covid is trending downwards, with the 47,525 positive tests yesterday across Britain down by a quarter on last week’s figure.
But there is a roughly three-week time delay between someone catching the disease and dying from it, which means it takes about 21 days for a trend in cases to translate to the fatality figures.
Because Britain only went into lockdown a week ago, daily Covid deaths are likely to continue to rise for at least another fortnight before falling.
Here, MailOnline answers your questions on the UK’s current Covid situation:
Are cases going down everywhere?
Covid infection rates are falling across swathes of authorities in the UK, according to most recent official data up to January 8.
Cases are falling in boroughs in London, the South East and East of England — which were bearing the brunt of the winter wave ahead of the national shutdown on January 4.
Infections in Kent — one of the first areas of England to be slapped with the harshest local lockdown measures — were actually slowing before the third lockdown, suggesting the tough Tier Four restrictions in place there were having some effect.
In London, the number of people testing positive per 100,000 fell from a peak of 1,116 on January 4 to 1,005 by January 7. But there was a slight uptick again on January 8 across every region, according to Department of Health figures.
In the East of England dropped from 856 per 100,000 to 741 and in the South East from 774 to 679 in the same time period.
In areas with the lightest rules, however, cases continued to surge late into the year and, despite almost the entire country getting tougher rules on boxing day, continued to rise into the start of lockdown, with some still going up.
Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, said: ‘It is too early to be confident that the data from the past few days have indeed meant we have now reached the peak.
‘The current positive signs may represent a statistical glitch or a short-lived effect causing recent increases to stall only for the surge to be resumed.
‘It is also still too early for this to be driven by the vaccination campaign. Nevertheless if the recent trend is maintained this would be very good news for our NHS.’
Why are infections still going up in some parts of country?
Infections are still going up in some parts of the country because it takes weeks for lockdown measures to take effect.
It is not by chance that the places where cases continue to climb are in areas that enjoyed looser restrictions in December.
For example, the Liverpool city region — formerly Britain’s Covid hotspot — is seeing steep increases in infection rates again.
In Knowsley, where the biggest rise in England happened over the past week, cases were 1,399.3 per 100,000 people in the seven days ending January 9, up from 796.8.
Merseyside was under Tier Two restrictions right up until January, which allowed restaurants, cinemas and gyms to stay open. The same was true for places in the South West. Torbay in Devon saw its case rate double in the last week to 254 per 100,000.
When will hospital admissions start to fall?
Hospital admissions are already falling across London and the South East and are slowing in the East, official figures suggest.
Department of Health statistics show daily admissions in the capital hit their high point on January 6 — on day two of the shutdown — when the seven-day average stood at 864. It dropped to 845 the following day. In the South East, hospitalisations also peaked on January 6 when they reached 662.
And in the East of England — which was plunged into the highest bracket of restrictions at the same time — they had started to level off by January 4 but have not yet started to fall.
But even as admissions have slowed across the capital and in regions first plunged into the toughest bracket, the overall number of patients in hospital is still rising because the number of new cases needing treatment each day is still high.
Almost 36,500 infected Britons were receiving NHS care in January 11.
Despite the glimmer of hope, which comes alongside falling infections, hospital admissions for patients suffering from the virus are also continuing to rise in the South West, North West, North East and Midlands.
The roughly three-week lag between a person catching Covid and falling seriously unwell with it means hospital rates could continue to climb for another fortnight. But they are anticipated to fall after that in line with the infection rate trends.
But when will NHS hospitals start to feel ease in pressure?
The number of coronavirus infections, hospitalisations, admissions to intensive care and deaths is going to keep rising in the UK for weeks, with the peak not hitting until next month, according to a top NHS chief.
Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, said he expects pressure to spike and begin to tail off in February because the third lockdown does not appear to be working as quickly as the one in spring, he claimed.
He warned a health and social care committee of MPs yesterday: ‘It is pretty clear the infection rate is not going to go down as quickly as it did in the first phase.
‘We were hoping for a sharp peak that came sooner and shorter. So something for example where we saw the peak and started to crest it in mid to late January.
‘It now looks like the peak for NHS demand may actually now be in February. Now if that’s right that’s going to basically mean there’s a higher level, and a more extended period of pressure on the NHS than we were expecting even just a week ago.’
A wave of admissions was now hitting the East of England into the Midlands, the North West and South West, after London, the South East and the East bore the brunt of the winter wave.
‘That’s a particular worry because trusts in the Midlands and the North have got significant numbers of patients still in hospital from the second surge.’
Why are deaths still rising?
Deaths always lag weeks behind cases because of the time it takes for patients to catch and fall ill with Covid.
Although it varies from person to person, experts say it takes roughly three weeks for an infected person to succumb to the disease.
For this reason scientists are able to forecast how deaths will trend based on how infections are fluctuating.
UK cases have fallen for four days in a row which appears to show that infections are trending downwards just a week into the national lockdown.
Because infections dropped from last week, it would suggest that deaths will follow in about a fortnight’s time.
Source:
