Just NINE US states are testing enough people to reopen, experts reveal
Just nine US states are close to or have surpassed the coronavirus testing minimums needed to reopen, new data reveals.
The states are mostly out in the West and not very populated, and include Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.
All of those states are seeing 10 percent or fewer positive COVID-19 results, according to the estimations from Harvard Global Health Institute, obtained exclusively by NPR.
Meanwhile, states with large outbreaks including California, Michigan, New Jersey and the US epicenter New York, are nowhere near the minimum.
The findings are a reminder of why reopening states too quickly could lead to a new, fatal spike in cases.
Just Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming are doing enough coronavirus testing to reopen, new data from Harvard reveals
All are doing enough testing per 100,000 residents and are getting less than 10% positive results. Pictured: Testing in Tennessee, left, and in North Dakota, right
By comparison, New Jersey is only testing 77 per 100,000 people and New York is testing 115 per 100,000. Pictured: Nurses work at a drive-thru testing site for coronavirus at North Shore University Hospital in Manhasset, New York, May 6
To calculate their estimates, the Harvard team created a model of future cases for every state.
Next, they determined how much testing needed to be done in each state to test everyone infected by the virus and anyone they had come into contact with.
Testing, of course, depends on the outbreak and states with bigger outbreaks need more widespread testing.
‘Testing is outbreak control 101, because what testing lets you do is figure out who’s infected and who’s not,’ Dr Ashish Jha, director of the Global Health Institute, told NPR.
‘And that lets you separate out the infected people from the non-infected people and bring the disease under control.’
The nine states all meet, or are nearly meeting, their daily targets of testing however many residents per 100,000.
For example, based on seven-day average, North Dakota is testing 236 per 100,000 people daily – which is more than double its target – and 2.2 percent of its test results are positive.
Bars and restaurants, recreational facilities, health clubs and athletic facilities, salons, and tattoo studios in the state were allowed to reopen from May 1 with social distancing measures.
And Alaska, testing 89 per 100,000 residents, only has 0.4 of all its tests come back positive for COVID-19, according to a graphic put together by NPR.
Starting April 24, officials in Alaska allowed dine-in service at restaurants and reopening of retailers, personal care services and other businesses, with limitations.
The nine states’ outbreaks weren’t very large to begin and, with a relatively small population, it doesn’t take as many tests to get to a minimum percentage, but the team says their respective health departments are to be commended.
Nowhere in the US is completely reopen yet but many have partially reopened by allowing some businesses to resume, like curbside retail. Only 11 states remain closed, though they have shared plans for partial reopenings that include construction and manufacturing resuming, which will start over the next few weeks
The findings are surprising as several southern US states including Georgia, Florida and Texas begin to reopen. Pictured: Customers shop at a reopened shopping mall in Frisco, on the outskirts of Dallas, Texas, May 5
While all three reopened states have less than 10% of positive cases, none are testing enough residents per 100,000. Pictured: Nancy Ray (left) and Roanne Trapani (right) sit on the beach during a phased reopening in St Pete Beach, Florida, May 4
Meanwhile, New Jersey, which has the second-most number of cases, is only testing 77 per 100,000 residents daily, many times less than is needed.
Additionally, nearly one-third of all its tests – 32.8 percent – come back positive, the NPR graphic says.
New York is only testing about 115 per 100,000 – although it is much closer at 13.8 percent to meeting the 10 percent or lower benchmark.
The findings are surprising as several southern US states including Georgia, Florida and Texas begin to reopen.
Georgia is continuing on its aggressive course to reopening after the statewide shelter-at-home order expired with certain businesses allowed to reopen as long as people followed social distancing orders.
And in Texas, retail stores, restaurants, movie theaters and malls were allowed to reopen at a 25 percent reduced capacity from May 1.
While these states have less than 10 percent of positive cases, none are testing enough residents per 100,000.
The Harvard team suggests that, across the US, more than 900,000 tests need to be performed per day – nearly double from its original estimate of 500,000 to 600,000 tests done every day.
‘Just in the last few weeks, all of the models have converged on many more people getting infected and many more people [dying],’ Jha said.
Testing isn’t the only thing states need to be doing. They also need to be doing contact tracing and isolating anyone who is or may be infected.
‘I don’t want anybody to just look at the number and say: ‘We meet it and we’re good to go,’ Jha told NPR.
‘What this really is, is testing capacity in the context of having a really effective workforce of contact tracers.’
In the US, there more than 1.2 million confirmed cases of the virus and more than 74,000 deaths.
Source: Daily Mail | Health News
