Wars are not won on hopes and dreams, and that’s becoming clearer as Russia continues to push deeper into Ukraine under the guise of “demilitarizing” the Eastern European nation. If you just paid attention to social media, you’d think The Ukrainians were routing the Russians, but the situation on the ground is far more complicated.
Vladimir Putin’s forces are seizing key objectives, beginning to take major cities, and are starting to fight with more reckless abandon. That has seemed to change the calculus a bit, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky making an impassioned plea on Thursday for peace talks.
Zelensky to Putin: “Good Lord, what do you want? Leave our land. If you don’t want to leave now, sit down with me at the negotiating table. But not from 30 meters away, like with Macron and Scholz. Sit down with me and talk. What are you afraid of? We’re no threat to anyone.” pic.twitter.com/CNsLj2yQ1N
— max seddon (@maxseddon) March 3, 2022
You can hear the desperation in his voice, and it’s completely understandable. His people are dying at the hands of a far more powerful invader, and Ukraine simply does not have the ability to win the war that has been brought to his doorstep. At the beginning of the week, there was some sense that the Russians were struggling (and they were), but as I said at the time, the question was always going to be how far Putin was willing to go. There was never any doubt Russia had the capacity to overtake Ukraine if it truly wanted to. There was some doubt as to whether Putin wanted to have the visual spectacle of bombing civilian centers into dust.
Zelensky’s statements are not those of a man who believes he’s winning. He even touched on that by asserting that he does not want to sacrifice his people on the altar of Western lore.
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“I don’t want Ukraine’s history to be a legend about 300 Spartans. I want peace.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addresses his country in the face of the Russian invasion. pic.twitter.com/fXZu6igpsr— CNN (@CNN) March 3, 2022
Let this be a reality check for those out there, including on the right, who have been demanding the Ukrainians fight to the last man in order to spite Putin. I’ve fallen into that trap as well, even as I’ve also cautioned that Ukraine is not likely to win in the end. Do I want to see the Russian leader defeated? Of course, I do. But my life is not on the line and my cities are not on the line. When the dust finally settles, American social media users are not going to be picking up the pieces and burying their loved ones.
Wars are not won with flag emojis and virtue signaling. They aren’t won with viral disinformation meant to project strength where there is actually struggle. Zelensky has to weigh the costs, and I believe he’s shown himself capable of doing that. In the end, as I warned from the beginning of this conflict, that is almost certainly going to mean negotiating with the Russians and making some concessions. Short of full-scale Western military intervention, Ukraine does not have the warhorses to outright defeat Putin.
Some will say I’m being a “Putin-apologist” for pointing that out, but that’s ludicrous. This isn’t a game. Real people are dying and losing everything. Those vigorously tweeting from the comfort of their American living rooms should probably remember that.
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