If you read Allahpundit’s post earlier then you know there’s some speculation that the clock is ticking on the Russian invasion. Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges estimates Russia can only sustain its current levels of deployment for about 10 more days before its troops and ammunition are depleted to the point they can’t really mount an effective fight. Hodges also pointed to the possibility of a Russian default as soon as tomorrow which would also create serious domestic problems that might keep Putin occupied.
Lt. Gen. Hodges was quick to say his view of the current situation was based not on any inside information or intelligence but on his own past experience. However, a couple of hours ago the UK Ministry of Defense released an assessment that dovetails pretty well with what Hodges was saying.
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Continued personnel losses will also make it difficult for Russia to secure occupied territory.— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) March 15, 2022
This next bit is especially interesting.
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Russia will likely attempt to use these forces to hold captured territory and free up its combat power to renew stalled offensive operations.— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) March 15, 2022
So according to the best UK estimate, Russia is already at the point of needing to redeploy forces from the opposite side of the continent in order to keep the attack going. Ukraine claims Russia has lost as many as 12,000 soldiers while US estimates are about half of that. The Daily Mail has some reporting on this:
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Russian forces may only be able to sustain full fighting capacity for another ‘ten to 14’ days, senior UK defence sources indicated last night, after which Putin’s men will struggle to hold the ground they have already captured from Ukrainian troops.
UK defence sources say that Kyiv has Moscow ‘on the run’ and the Russian army could be just two weeks from ‘culmination point’ – after which ‘the strength of Ukraine’s resistance should become greater than Russia’s attacking force.’ Advances across Ukraine have already stopped as Moscow’s manpower runs short.
Another sign that Russia is increasingly desperate for manpower comes in the form of reports on Russian efforts to recruit soldiers from Syria:
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Russian officers, in coordination with the Syrian military and allied militia, had set up registration offices in regime-held areas.
“More than 40,000 Syrians have registered to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine so far,” said Rami Abdel Rahman who heads the UK-based monitor, which has a wide network of sources in Syria…
In a country where soldiers earn between $15 and $35 per month, Russia has promised them a salary of $1,100 to fight in Ukraine, the Observatory reported.
Are these soldiers going to be paid in rubles? If so they might want to check the exchange rate before heading into battle.
Even if Russia can redeploy and resupply for now, the bottom line is that the invasion is not going well and the ability to keep this up is limited. As Lt. Gen. Hodges said, Russia probably doesn’t have the manpower needed to encircle and besiege Kyiv for however long it would take to get the government to surrender. Unless Putin can claim a victory this month, he may need to start thinking about how he can bring his forces home without admitting defeat.
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