Britain’s fertility timebomb was laid bare today with the lowest birth rate ever recorded in official statistics.
England and Wales recorded an average of 1.44 children per women of childbearing age as of 2023, according to the Office of National Statistics (ONS) today.
Experts fear falling rates will lead to population decline — with fewer working age adults triggering economic issues and a reliance on migration to prop up numbers.
Women focusing on their careers in their younger years has been blamed, whilst others have pointed to the cost of living and of housing as factors.
Particular areas of the England and Wales recorded especially low fertility rates.
One of these ‘baby deserts’ was The City of London which had the lowest fertility rate at an average 0.55 babies per woman.
Cambridge recorded the second lowest fertility rate of 0.91, followed by Brighton and Hove at 0.98 babies per woman.
By region the biggest drop in fertility rates was in Wales, falling to 1.39 from 1.46 and the North West of England, to 1.46 from 1.53.
Women of childbearing age have, on average, only had 1.44 children each as of 2023, according to a report from the Office of National Statistics. This is the lowest level recorded since records began in 1938
Cambridge recorded one of the lowest lowest fertility rates in England and Wales at less than one baby per woman of childbearing age
In contrast London, the North East and the West Midlands, while still seeing overall decreases, had the smallest falls of any region.
The collapse of fertility rate observed in the ONS report is part of a wider trend that has been observed since 2010, and more broadly since the 60s.
By age group, the decline has been sharpest in women in their 20s.
Birth rates among women in their early 20s have fallen almost 80 per cent since the 60s, from 182 births per 1,000 women to just 38.6 births per 1,000 women today.
Put another way, only a fifth of British women will have had a child by the age of 25 today, the lowest proportion ever.
The fertility collapse has come in tandem with a fall in births.
England and Wales only recorded 591,072 live births in 2023, the lowest number since 1977.
While no area in England and Wales recorded a fertility rate at or above the what experts call the replacement level of 2.1, some did come close.
England and Wales only recorded 591,072 live births in 2023, the lowest number since 1977
Luton in Bedfordshire had the highest fertility rate of both nations at 2.01.
This was followed by the London borough of Barking and Dagenham with a rate of two babies per woman, and a Slough in Berkshire with a rate of 1.93.
Numerous factors have been blamed for why fertility rates have collapsed in modern Britain.
Some have cited how women are simply enjoying the independence society now offers them compared to a century ago and are choosing not to have children.
In a similar trend some women may only choosing to have children later in life, and so fewer overall, and instead focus on their careers.
For men, lifestyle factors like the rising prevalence of obesity in many countries is also thought to be having a downward impact on fertility.
Rising cost-of-living pressures, especially the price of childcare and housing, is another factor that puts a dampener on couples having children or deciding to have more than one, and can bring the total fertility rate down as a result.
Professor Bassel Wattar, an associate professor of reproductive medicine at Anglia Ruskin University, said that data ‘reflects a worrying yet persistent downward trend’.
Elon Musk (pictured), who boasts of ‘always banging the baby drum’, has been warning about a decline in births for years
He added: ‘This may be explained by the recent cost of living crisis and financial strain that could be dissuading couples from having more than two children per household.
‘This is also compounded by the progressive reduction in available NHS funding for fertility treatments like IVF which is further contributing to the low fertility and birth rates in the UK as a whole.’
Meanwhile, Professor Melinda Mills, an expert in demography and population health at the University of Oxford, said: ‘People are actively postponing or forgoing children due to issues related to difficulties in finding a partner, housing, economic uncertainty, remaining longer in education and particularly women entering and staying in the labour force.’
Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London, said that in the short term, lower numbers of births will reduce spending pressure on schools, childcare and child benefits, but he added: ‘Over the longer term, it will, of course, mean fewer workers to support a growing elderly population.’
He said that the trend should ‘worry anyone thinking about what Britain will look like in 2050’.
But without replenishment of an ageing population, scientists claim public services and economic growth are at risk.
Ever-declining birth rates will also pile extra pressure on the NHS and social care as there will be less younger people to work in services that an elderly population will need.
Professor Wattar said: ‘Many high income countries are seeing a similar worrying trend like Japan and South Korea which has a direct negative impact on the country’s GPD and productivity.
‘The fertility replacement rate should stay close to 2.1 children per woman and the government could implement immediate interventions to help reverse trends such as offering longer paid parental leave, more funding for childcare for working parents, and more funding for fertility treatments in the NHS.’
The ONS report showed the average age of fathers increased to 33.8, while the average of mothers remained stable at 30.9.
While the age of mothers remained stable it is on the back of a historic rise in when women are deciding, on average, have children later, if at all.
For comparison, almost 60 percent of women born in the 40s had at least one baby by the age of 25, today this has fallen to 20 per cent.
Britain isn’t alone in experiencing a baby bust.
Earlier this year scientists warned 75 per cent of countries would face this demographic problem by 2050.
By 2100 this could rise to 97 per cent of all nations, in what experts have described as a ‘staggering social change’.
Experts, and even celebrities like Elon Musk, have been warning about the global threat of underpopulation for years.
Some countries are taking action to try and reverse the trend.
France, which already enjoys a higher fertility rate than Britain of 1.8, is planning to offer of a free ‘fertility check-up’ to all 18 to 25-year-olds, both male and female to address the ‘scourge’ of infertility according to President Emmanuel Macron.
