Yesterday, we looked at the convoluted process unfolding in the British Parliament as Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s own party called a vote of no-confidence over the Partygate scandal that could have removed him from office. At the time, I pointed out that a relatively small number of Conservative Party MPs could trigger such a vote, but it wasn’t clear that a majority of them were willing to support the measure. As it turns out, there weren’t enough and BoJo survived the vote. But there were still far more votes in favor of removal than Johnson’s supporters had hoped to see. This result assures him at least another year in office if he wants to stay, but his political position appears to be weakened for the time being. (NY Post)
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson narrowly defeated a no-confidence vote by members of his Conservative Party Monday, but the outcome pointed to deep divisions fewer than three years after Johnson led the Tories to their biggest election victory since the zenith of Margaret Thatcher in the mid-1980s.
The 211-148 result means that Johnson cannot be challenged from within the Conservative ranks for one full year. However, the outcome also means that more than half the House of Commons either opposes Johnson or has expressed no confidence in him.
Sensing an opportunity to force an early election, the opposition Labour Party announced they would put forward their own no-confidence motion for the whole House to vote on Tuesday.
Most media outlets, including the Post, are describing the result as a “narrow” escape from removal for Johnson. But a 211-148 split in his favor actually represents a fairly healthy majority of his party that still supports him. But is it enough? Keep in mind that it was only the Torries voting yesterday. They hold a majority in Parliament, but the minority Labour Party still holds plenty of seats and none of them are supporters of BoJo. When you add their numbers to the 148 Conservative Party MPs who voted against Johnson, a majority of the Chamber can be assumed to have no confidence in him.
The Labour Party wasted no time in announcing that they would call for a no-confidence vote by the entire House of Commons. That has some British political analysts predicting that Johnson’s reprieve may be short-lived and his days as Prime Minister may still be numbered.
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“While we doubt there will be changes to current party rules stipulating that Johnson cannot receive another leadership challenge for twelve months, he could still face another formal challenge just after that. And in the meantime he might still be forced to resign if his inner circle turn against him,” [J.P. Morgan Economist Allan Monks] noted.
He added that Johnson was likely to announce new policy initiatives in an attempt to win round both the Conservative party and public opinion.
“The most obvious would be to use any remaining leeway on fiscal policy to promise significant tax cuts and further giveaways, perhaps at the Conservative Party conference in October,” he added.
Most of the MPs make no bones about the fact that they watch the opinion polling of the public very closely and almost always base their votes on the results. If the voters in their districts are now viewing BoJo unfavorably because of the Partygate scandal, they will quickly jump ship, likely in favor of a less controversial conservative. There are also a significant number of districts in Great Britain that are very closely divided and regularly flip back and forth between the two major parties.
The next general election doesn’t have to be called until 2025. But in one year, the Labour Party could force the full no-confidence vote I mentioned above, and if they gain enough support from the Torries who appear to have turned on Johnson they can force an early election. BoJo has a lot of work ahead of him if he wants to charm enough of the rebel Conservative MPs back into his corner to forestall that sort of outcome. And if Great Britain’s economy continues to falter over the summer as it’s expected to do, that job will become even harder.
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