Yesterday CBS News released a poll showing Ron Johnson and Mandela Barnes in a tight race. Separated by 1 point–well within the margin of error–the poll indicates that that race will be a nail biter.
I am quite confident that Johnson will win the Wisconsin senate race quite comfortably. Expect an early night for Johnson. He will be sipping scotch, smoking a Padron and chatting with Mitch McConnell by 9:30 that Tuesday night.
Why am I so confident? Believe it or not, it’s not because I think that CBS is trying to gaslight you about the race in order to keep up the spirits of Democrats around the country. Perhaps they are, but you don’t need to assume that in order to believe that the polling in Wisconsin and other states is skewed heavily against Republicans.
All you need is a bit of historical knowledge and the ability to do a dive into the “internals” of the polls. Both history and a quick glance at those internals tell you that Barnes is going down in flames.
First the history: in recent elections pollsters have had a terrible time getting Republicans to open up and share their opinions. Nothing about this election would lead you to believe that Republicans are more likely to talk to pollsters than in recent years. Have you become more trusting of the MSM in the past 2 years?
Me neither.
Sure, pollsters are aware of the problem and are desperately trying to correct it. Being wrong all the time is bad for business, and they want to make a nice living as much as you or I.
But voter modeling is hard. It requires making a ton of assumptions. And while pollsters can tell you all they want about random sampling and margins of error, at the end of the day figuring out who will show up at the polls is more black magic than science. And pollsters have been really bad at magic in recent years.
The random sample, in order to matter, has to be of people who will vote, and it is only random if people of all types are equally willing to talk with pollsters. And figuring out who will vote is not easy. That is the biggest challenge in polling elections, and the pollsters are doing quite badly in recent years.
Now, for the internals: things look really bad for Barnes. This, more than anything else, tells you what you need to know. Ron Johnson’s voters are going to turn out.
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Given what voters actually care about, this makes sense. About the only issue Barnes (and most Democrats) have is abortion. People who care deeply about abortion are likely to vote for Barnes. But if you care about the economy, inflation, or crime you are likely to support Johnson. What do you think will get most people to vote?
Record as Lieutenant Governor? I can confidently say that not one voter will pull the lever or mark the oval because of how Barnes did as LG. 90% of voters in WI probably had never heard that he was LG until the race for Senate got under way. Who cares about Lieutenant Governors?
The issue terrain is just terrible for Barnes. On the bread and butter issues Johnson looks better to voters, and bread and butter issues are the ones on which elections are won. Especially in tough times.
And given the explosion of crime in recent years, what side of this issue terrain do you want to inhabit? The one where policies make you feel safer, or where you make them feel less safe? Democrats are fleeing from their own crime policies. Who but Antifa wants to defund the police any more? Even Attorney General Keith Ellison here in Minnesota is pretending that he opposes crime, although it seems most of his allies commit them.
In short, the top line of the poll says that the election is going to be tight. But pretty much everything else indicates that Johnson is going to have an early night. My instincts tell me that the Barnes team is already looking for employment elsewhere, and Mandela is putting together his concession speech. He will probably be giving lectures at Harvard’s Kennedy School this time next year.
Am I wrong about this? It’s possible, but unlikely.
Of course you know the drill. A month is an eternity…things can change on a dime…October surprise…the only poll that matters….Only you can prevent forest fires…don’t litter…the more you know….
But seriously, if Putin doesn’t drop a nuke between now and November 8, Johnson is getting reelected.
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