Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan has toyed with the idea of a presidential run in 2024. His argument for doing so seems to center around the idea of “I’m gonna fight Trump!” and little else.
In 2016, approximately 273 GOP candidates fought for the title of GOP nominee. There were so many “viable” candidates, that the GOP hosted two debates on debate nights – one for the top candidates and one “kid’s table” debate for those trailing pretty far behind.
The result was a heavily divided GOP primary. Donald Trump became the nominee with the smallest percentage of the primary vote in history.
It was the high number of candidates, and their unwillingness to stay out of Trump’s arena – the arena of mudslinging – that ultimately paved the way for Trump to become the 2016 GOP nominee for president. Specifically, it was candidates like John Kasich who stayed in the race long after it was clear they had no shot that kept the primary vote divided and allowed for Trump to win a plurality of votes.
At this point, we can acknowledge a handful of probable candidates to join Donald Trump and Nikki Haley, who have already declared their candidacy. It looks like Mike Pompeo, Mike Pence, and Tim Scott are preparing to jump in. Ron DeSantis seems like a sure bet. There are a couple of other names floating around – will the Senators from 2016 try to jump in? Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, etc.? It’s unclear.
What is clear, though, is that there is an obvious but unspoken requirement for running: Having an actual campaign plan. Larry Hogan does not seem to have one, other than to complain about the GOP as it is.
What Hogan does seem to have, however, is the knowledge that his campaign might actually do the opposite of what he’d like it to do. It might just help Trump, rather than hurt him.
Host Chuck Todd asked Hogan, an outspoken GOP critic of Trump who has been weighing his own presidential bid, “If you thought your candidacy was going to contribute to … inadvertently helping Donald Trump, would that be a reason not to run?”
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“That’d be a pretty good reason to consider not running. Absolutely,” Hogan said, adding, “I don’t care that much about my future in the Republican Party. I care about making sure we have a future for the Republican Party.”
There is honestly very little that Hogan brings to the table. He was a relatively popular governor in his state but has very little name recognition outside of the northeast unless you pay a whole lot of attention to national politics. It’s not particularly clear what policies or issues he would bring that could compete on a stage against Trump.
Some will argue that the same could be said of Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis, except the former earned a national profile during her time as governor after the tragic shooting at a black church in her state, and further grew that profile serving in the Trump administration. Behind the scenes, she has also worked to get Republican women into office at a higher rate than anyone else can claim to.
DeSantis, meanwhile, is so feared by the national press that he is getting name-dropped in their headlines almost daily. There was a viral video clip during the NFL playoffs of him walking along the sidelines and Kansas City fans were cheering for him. Hogan doesn’t have anywhere close to that popularity (or notoriety).
What Hogan does have is a chance to divide the non-Trump vote, possibly preventing non-Trump candidates from gaining enough of a foothold to defeat Trump. And if preventing Trump from becoming the candidate is Hogan’s goal, then what he needs to do is throw support (and money) behind someone else more likely to. He can call his supporters and donors and direct their money somewhere else.
If it’s not really about stroking Hogan’s ego, then he knows he can do a better job outside the primary than in it.
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