It’s not the first time that Democrats have sent Joe Biden best wishes on his retirement in 2024. The 56% of Biden’s fellow Democrats in this USA Today/Ipsos poll who want him out of the 2024 sweepstakes isn’t even the widest majority on record.
The Ipsos survey might be the first time that only one party wants its 2020 nominee to step aside, however:
Most Republican voters think they already have the right candidate for 2024. Fifty-nine percent say Trump should be the nominee; just 41% say it is time for a change in the GOP.
That said, several Trump supporters in follow-up interviews expressed reservations about the former president’s age and persona.
“He did some things that I liked,” said Tyler Geyer, 35, a mail carrier from Kenna, West Virginia. For 2024, though, “I would like somebody from a younger generation to run the country and someone who’s maybe not so bombastic.” He mentioned DeSantis and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
Democratic voters are more eager for a change in the party and a new face for the 2024 race. In the poll, 44% of them say Biden “deserves reelection,” while 56% say he shouldn’t run again.
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Welcome to the Merrick Garland Effect. Until now, polling on Biden and Donald Trump for 2024 had been relatively similar, although not necessarily in amplitude. A Trump 2024 run had always had more support among Republicans than a Biden 2024 bid did with Democrats, but until now it didn’t get this kind of majority support in a poll where Democrats wanted Biden out. That looks like a rally effect after the raid on Mar-a-Lago, a move that infuriated Republicans who saw it as a politicization of the Department of Justice and the FBI, especially given the gentle treatment Hillary Clinton received for worse and more sustained violations of the same statutes.
Biden’s not benefiting much from that raid, at least not among his own party. It hasn’t exactly backfired on Biden, but it’s not shaking the impression among his base that he’s not up to the task. A majority thinks he can win the election, but a similar majority want a change in leadership of the Democratic Party, starting at the top.
The effect for Trump may well be temporary as the raid fades in memory and other issues come to the fore. The problem for Biden looks more substantial and lasting, however. Polls consistently show that his voters want a different nominee, and even while lauding Biden’s qualities — he gets 83% or up favorability on experience, policy expertise, and leadership — 56% of those respondents want someone else on the ticket in 2024. And that’s after the media has been on a month-long blitz painting Biden as a Comeback Kid who’s finally finding his footing, a rather remarkable narrative anyway for someone who’s been perched in Washington DC for forty-nine years.
These results and others like it should worry the White House, which keeps insisting that Biden will run for re-election in two years. They may need to worry more about these results first:
Americans are more likely to view the Democratic Party as willing to compromise to get things done (29%) and inclusive (31%) than the Republican Party (16% each). In contrast, the Republican Party is more likely to be seen as good for the economy (34%) and tough on crime (33%) than the Democratic Party (24% and 15%, respectively). Of note, nearly half of Americans (46%) believe inflation and increasing costs are the main problem currently facing the country. Gun violence (26%) and crime (17%) are included in a crowded second tier of issues.
Forty-six percent of Americans think inflation is the biggest issue of the midterms, and Democrats trail Republicans on economic issues by ten points. Democrats trail Republicans on crime by more than 2:1, and crime is the #3 issue on voters’ minds this fall. It is the daily lived experiences of voters that drive their ballot choices and even their decision to cast ballots at all, and that is bad news for Democrats as well as Joe Biden.
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