At one time, Joe Manchin commanded support and respect across the political spectrum in West Virginia. Those days had already begun to ebb in the Mountain State, but Morning Consult’s latest poll shows Manchin’s support draining quickly — and not just among Republicans.
Democrats barely approve of Manchin even after cutting a deal with Chuck Schumer to save Joe Biden from complete humiliation before the midterms. And that might be impressive … if West Virginia had more Democrats:
Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin’s job approval rating has fallen by double digits among West Virginia voters in recent months as he has played a pivotal role in advancing a pared-back version of President Joe Biden’s major domestic policy legislation, Morning Consult Political Intelligence tracking shows. This places him comfortably among America’s most unpopular senators ahead of a potential 2024 re-election run.
- A slim majority of West Virginia voters (51%) disapprove of Manchin’s job performance, according to surveys conducted July 1-Sept. 30, up from 38% in the second quarter of the year. This matches his disapproval rating from the beginning of Biden’s presidency.
- The increase in disapproval was driven largely by West Virginia Republicans and independents, majorities of whom disapprove of Manchin’s job performance after expressing positive views earlier this year.
- Half of West Virginia Democrats (52%) approve of the senator’s job performance, up from 41% at the beginning of the year. His strengthened standing among Democrats contributes heavily to his 42% approval rating. Less than half of Republicans and about a third of independents approve of his job performance.
Just how significant is this, though? Manchin’s not up for re-election for another two years, and it’s not certain yet that he will run anyway. Even if he does, two years is a long time for making amends — which might be easier for Manchin to do if Republicans take control of the Senate after the midterms.
A little perspective might be helpful here, too. It’s worth noting that two senators actually rank worse than Manchin in Morning Consult’s polling, both Republicans, and two only narrowly finish behind him, also both Republicans. But these senators have something else in common, too:
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Mitch McConnell may be the most unpopular senator with own-state voters, but he has no trouble winning re-election. Ron Johnson may be even less popular than Manchin among Johnson’s Wisconsin voters, but he now appears to be on the way to eking out another term. (David will have more on this later.) Collins just won re-election last election despite an all-out blitz from Schumer and Democrats. Even Maggie Hassan will likely win a new term, thanks to her Akin Strategy in getting Republicans to bite on a candidate who seems unlikely to win.
In fact, other than Manchin, it’s tough to pick even one of these senators for a sure loss in their next election. They might not win by acclamation, but they’d be favorites in any general election, and likely in primaries too.
Manchin could be different, however — not because he’s so much different than his colleagues on this list, but because his state is. Each of these other senators either represents a purplish state or one in which their party has a significant advantage. Manchin’s the only incumbent on this list that represents a state where the vast majority of voters belong to the opposite party. As such, his unpopularity isn’t exactly a surprise, except to the extent that the smallish number of Democrats can barely support him as well.
If this keeps up, Manchin’s toast, but Manchin was likely toast anyway. Manchin might just choose to sail his houseboat back to West Virginia in 2024, or maybe make a quixotic run for the Democratic presidential nomination first to make a point about the extreme left turn his party has taken first. Either way, Manchin will either head into retirement … or cross the aisle for survival. And he’s had plenty of opportunities to do the latter already.
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