Experts have issued a stark warning over the potential for deadly illnesses to spread across Europe amid a surge in cases. Our warming climate could mean we see more mosquito-borne diseases in areas previously little affected, it has been warned.
The small insects spread illnesses such as malaria and dengue fever, both of which have become more prevalent over the past 80 years due to warmer, more humid conditions that they thrive in.
It is thought that the number of people living in areas rife with mosquito-borne diseases could therefore double to 4.7 billion by the end of the century.
As reported by The Guardian, Professor Rachel Lowe who leads the global health resilience group at the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre in Spain, warned that outbreaks are set to spread across currently unaffected parts of the world in the next few decades.
This includes countries in northern Europe, Asia, North America and Australia.
She is set to present her concerns at the global congress of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases in Barcelona next week.
Prof Lowe explained: “Global warming due to climate change means that the disease vectors that carry and spread malaria and dengue [fever] can find a home in more regions, with outbreaks occurring in areas where people are likely to be immunologically naive and public health systems unprepared.
“The stark reality is that longer hot seasons will enlarge the seasonal window for the spread of mosquito-borne diseases and favour increasingly frequent outbreaks that are increasingly complex to deal with.”
Dengue fever was previously mainly found in tropical and subtropical regions, due to the fact freezing temperatures can kill the carrying insect’s larvae and eggs.
Now it has become the fastest-spreading mosquito-borne viral disease in the world as a result of longer hot seasons and less regular frosts, scientists say.
The insect that carries dengue – the Asian tiger mosquito – had been detected in 13 countries in Europe as of 2023 including Italy, France, Spain and Germany – but not the UK.
Data shows the bug is thriving on the continent. Nine out of the 10 most hospitable years for transmission of the disease have occurred since 2000.
And dengue cases reported to the World Health Organisation have increased eight times in the past two decades, from 500,000 in 2000 to more than five million in 2019.
Prof Lowe said this could get worse as our climate continues to change.
“Droughts and floods linked to climate change can lead to greater transmission of the virus, with stored water providing additional mosquito breeding sites,” she said.
“Lessons from previous outbreaks underscore the importance of assessing future vector-borne disease risks and preparing contingencies for future outbreaks.”
She predicted that the number of people living in areas with mosquito-borne diseases would double to 4.7 billion by the end of the century, based on the current trajectory of high carbon emissions and population growth.
Prof Lowe continued: “With climate change seeming so difficult to address, we can expect to see more cases and possibly deaths from diseases such as dengue and malaria across mainland Europe.
“We must anticipate outbreaks and move to intervene early to prevent diseases from happening in the first place.
“Efforts need to focus on enhancing surveillance with early warning and response systems similar to those seen in other parts of the world, to more effectively target finite resources to the most at-risk areas to control and prevent disease outbreaks and save lives.”
The change in our climate will also negatively affect antimicrobial resistance, it has been warned.
Prof Sabiha Essack, head of the antimicrobial resistance unit at the University of KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa, said: “Climate change compromises the ecological and environmental integrity of living systems and enables pathogens to increasingly cause disease.
“The impact on water systems, food-producing animals and crops threatens global food supply.
“Human activities associated with population growth and transport, together with climate change, increase antibiotic resistance and the spread of waterborne and vector-borne diseases of humans, animals and plants.”
