Today will be one of the busiest days of the primary season thus far with voters heading to the polls in five states. As usual, the majority of these fights are looking like formalities, but a few of them in each party remain up in the air and will likely have a significant impact on the general election in November.
Most of the cable news attention has been focused on Georgia, with plenty of attention being given to the GOP gubernatorial primary. CNN in particular has been focused on the primary race between Republican Governor Brian Kemp and former Senator David Perdue. But they are making the race out as a battle that is more of a referendum on Donald Trump than anything else. Since Trump backed Perdue and is holding a grudge against Kemp for allowing the 2020 election to be certified, I suppose it makes for better ratings. Why anyone sees a significant mystery in this primary escapes me, though. The latest polling shows Governor Kemp with a 60 to 28 lead over Perdue. The only real question seems to be whether or not Kemp can break 50% and avoid a runoff. (Which he would probably win anyway.) Stacey Abrams is running unopposed to be the Democrats’ nominee again for reasons I’m unable to fathom, but I’m sure she’ll declare victory no matter how it ends up. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger is similarly fending off challengers with Trumpian overtones.
The more questionable race is the one for Marjorie Taylor Greene’s spot on the ballot. You would think that the incumbent Republican would have a fairly easy ride in the current climate, but it’s a crowded field and the polling has been all over the place. Greene is all MAGA all the time, so the enthusiasm for her among Trump’s base is beyond question. (Read the report about her recent appearance at a “Bikers for Trump” rally.) This field doesn’t seem to be anywhere near as “clean” as Kemp’s and I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t wind up in a runoff.
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The Senate race in Alabama is volatile enough to keep an eye on. If you believe the polls this year, it seems like Katie Britt is in good, if not unbeatable shape, leading both Mike Durant and Congressman Mo Brooks with 37%. Brooks had gained an endorsement from Trump but managed to lose it after suggesting people might need to “move on” from the 2020 election. Since they are hoping to replace the retiring Richard Shelby, it’s worth mentioning that Britt was a former Shelby staffer.
I don’t see a lot of surprises coming from the races in Arkansas, but there is one race in Texas that may have some long-term importance. We don’t generally pay a lot of national attention to state attorney general races, but Ken Paxton is trying to fend off a run-off challenge from the last politically active member of the Bush dynasty, George P. Bush. After being the most powerful Republican family brand in American politics for well over a decade, the Bush family has seemed to fade from the scene in recent years. Some expected this race to be a lot more exciting after Paxton was indicted by the FBI and remains under investigation. But the polling indicates that he should be able to cruise past Bush with relative ease. I find myself wondering if this is the last hurrah for the Bush clan unfolding before our eyes.
Minnesota has a competitive race to fill Jim Hagedorn’s congressional seat, but beyond that, I don’t expect to see too many fireworks out there. In any event, if you live in any of these states, this is your chance to help set the stage for November and signal whether or not there really is a red wave coming. Good luck.
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