We’ve been saying the momentum seems to be going in the Republicans’ direction when it comes to the Senate. We’ve been looking at eight races that Decision Desk has said that the race for the Senate may turn on: Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Ohio. Virtually all of them seem to have the Republicans up or have the race moving in a favorable direction.
Now, Wisconsin has just moved in the Republican direction as well.
Democrat Mandela Barnes had been up by more than 7 points in polling against Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) in August. Admittedly, that was a bit questionable to start with. Johnson had been down in polling by nine points in his last election, and he won by 3 points. So, most were doubting the polling on this race. Now, the polls have moved significantly toward Johnson.
A new poll from the Marquette University Law School showed 49 percent of likely voters supportive of Johnson, while 48 percent said they were for Barnes. The Civiqs poll also had a similar finding.
🚨 NEW WISCONSIN POLL By Civiqs
SENATE
(R) Johnson 49% (+1)
(D) Barnes 48%Independents
(R) Johnson 51% (+8)
(D) Barnes 43%
.
GOVERNOR
(D) Evers 49% (+1)
(R) Michels 48%Independents
(R) Michels 50% (+5)
(D) Evers 45%780 LV | D36/R35/I29 | 09/10-13https://t.co/scUv6xypbH
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 15, 2022
An internal Senate poll also had good news for Johnson.
The internal poll from the NRSC’s super PAC found Republican Sen. Ron Johnson leading Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes 49 percent to 45 percent, an NRSC aide told POLITICO. Barnes’ favorable-unfavorable rating is 38 percent-41 percent, down from 43 percent-27 percent six weeks ago.
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That spells bad news for the Democrats.
On top of that, there’s a surprise in Alaska that’s good news for the possibility of a stronger, more committed Republican in the seat. It looks like there might be a real horse race for the Senate there, with the Trump-supported Kelly Tshibaka having a real chance against Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK).
Alaska has that weird ranked choice voting, so they still had the top four competing there in this new poll, although Buzz Kelley has since dropped out and thrown his support to Tshibaka.
Alaska Senate:
Tshibaka (R) 46%
Murkowski (R-inc) 38%
Chesbro (D) 14%
Kelley (R) 2%
.
Round 2:
Tshibaka (R) 47%
Murkowski (R-inc) 38%
Chesbro (D) 14%
.
Round 3:
Murkowski (R-inc) 50%
Tshibaka (R) 50%Impact Research/@Fabrizio_Lee/@AARP, 500 LV, 9/6-11https://t.co/U61NIZHinJ
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 15, 2022
That poll has Tshibaka neck and neck with Murkowski, before Kelley dropped out.
Other numbers show that Biden’s numbers are bad, with 40 percent approval and 59 percent disapproval, while the generic ballot has Republicans up 51-37 percent.
AARP ALASKA POLL
– Peltola leads Palin 53/47.
– Murkowski and Tshibaka are tied 50/50.
– Biden is 40/59 disapprove.
– Republicans lead the generic ballot 51/37. https://t.co/jLLm6bLQkv— Realignment Politics (@politicsrea) September 15, 2022
So, great news, and let’s hope that momentum continues to November.
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