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They’re not retreating, they’re advancing in the opposite direction.

Their exact words, per WaPo, were that Russia will “drastically reduce” the number of troops around those two cities “to increase mutual trust and create the necessary conditions for further negotiations.” The Ukrainian translation:

I know what you’re thinking: “I don’t trust the Russians to keep their word.” I don’t either, even though it makes strategic sense for them to pull back from Kiev and Chernihiv at this point. Both cities are in northern Ukraine, where Russia has had the most trouble advancing. No one believes they’ll be in a position anytime soon to encircle Kiev; on the contrary, Russian troops have lost ground in the Kiev suburbs over the past week. If the Russian military was serious on Friday when it said that it would focus on “liberating” Ukraine’s disputed eastern territories going forward, it stands to reason that they’d begin to redeploy troops from the anemic northern front to the east.

But it’s reeeeeally hard to trust the Russian government. Observers are wondering whether the “retreat” from Kiev and Chernihiv is just an operational pause to regroup and then resume the offensive:

“Drastically reducing” Russian troops in the north might also create a problem for Russia in the east. If northern cities like Kiev and Chernihiv are suddenly no longer under threat, the Ukrainian troops defending them will be free to follow the Russians east and take the fight to the Donbas:

So, yeah, it’s possible the Russians are lying about a retreat in order to buy themselves time. But … time for what? Strategist Phillips O’Brien believes there’s no way realistically that Russia can mount a serious new offensive against Kiev:

If Russia’s out of gas in the north, they might as well redeploy east and try to take what they can get. Even if the Ukrainians follow them, Putin will lobby western leaders to lean on Zelensky to end the war. “You still have Kiev, Lviv, and Odessa. Do you really want to see thousands more people die and risk this war spiraling into WMD simply to hold onto Luhansk and Donetsk?”

There’s evidence on the ground that the withdrawal has begun:

For what it’s worth, U.S. officials tell CNN they believe the Russians really are redeploying. It’s not just hype from Putin’s deputies to insincerely signal some interest in deescalation:

The Russian forces now pulling back in some areas of the north will focus on gains in the south and east. The US is already observing these movements underway, including Russian Battalion Tactical Groups leaving the surrounding areas around Kyiv…

The US assesses Russia will cover their retreat with air and artillery bombardment of the capital, one of the officials said. US officials caution that Russia could always reverse again if the battle conditions allow…

In the US view, this is not a short-term adjustment to regroup, but a longer-term move as Russia comes to grips with failure to advance in the north. The official said one consequence the US is concerned about is keeping the European allies unified on economic pressure and military support as Washington expects some of them to press Ukraine to accept a peace deal to end the fighting.

That’s what Putin’s counting on. The moment Russia makes a move towards deescalation, like scaling back operations in the north, he expects European leaders to begin twisting Ukrainian arms to make concessions. Having Russia say “we’re ready for peace” as it squats on the Donbas and the “land bridge” created by Mariupol in the south will leave Zelensky in a terrible predicament. Does he stick to his guns about refusing territorial concessions and try to push Russia out of Luhansk and Donetsk? That’ll mean many more casualties on both sides, and it’ll give Putin an opportunity — a farcical one, but still — to claim that Ukraine is the aggressor now. They’re the party that refuses to end the war, after all.

There’s another reason to believe the Russian withdrawal from the north is real: The clock might be ticking on them in the south. Although they appear to have finally taken control of Mariupol in the southeast, Ukrainian troops are trying to push the Russians out of Kherson in the central southern part of the country, north of Crimea. If they succeed, Russia’s “corridor” between the Donbas and Crimea will be threatened. So Putin may be calculating that now is the moment to cut his losses in the north, go all-in on preserving his gains in the east and south, and then blow the whistle for a time out and a peace offer. “Give us the territory we hold and we’ll withdraw everywhere else. You can even join the EU if you want.”

The longer the war lasts, the greater the risk that Russia loses control of Kherson. Moscow may want to wrap this up as soon as possible.

In the meantime, though, they’re going to continue to bomb the hell out of Ukrainian cities to remind Zelensky what the price is for continuing the war. The latest major attack was in the southern city of Mykolaiv, which Russia had been hoping to occupy and then use as a base for operations against Odessa. It hasn’t worked out for them, and so:

Who knows if the bombing won’t get even more ferocious over the next few weeks to project “strength” now that Russia has confessed weakness by withdrawing from the north? I hope the White House and EU leaders are huddling with Zelensky to figure out how they’re going to play it if Putin suddenly asks for peace and a “modest” annexation of territory in eastern and southern Ukraine. Because that may be coming sooner than we think.

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