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Over last weekend, US Secretary of State Antony (without an “h”) Blinken and several other NATO ministers took the opportunity of the Munich Security Conference (State Department Rightfully and Finally Accuses Russia of Crimes Against Humanity in Ukraine) to deliver a message to China’s Foreign Affairs Commission Councillor Wang Yi. While China has openly sided with Russia in its illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, thus far, the aid has been of the “non-lethal” variety.

In an interview with ABC’s Martha Radditz, Blinken said he told his Chinese counterpart that any lethal aid sent to Russia would affect US-China relations and, presumably, the 10% held back for the “big guy” in Hunter Biden’s business deals.

[embedded content]

RADDATZ: And you talk about this lethal aid. What evidence do you have of that? What makes you think they’re about to send lethal aid to the Russians for the war in Ukraine?

BLINKEN: Martha, what I can tell you is this. First of all, from day one, almost quite literally because President Biden spoke to President Xi a couple of weeks into the Russian aggression back last March, and said to him that it would be a deep concern to us if China provided lethal support to Russia or helped in the systematic evasion of sanction. And part of that reason for that conversation going back to last March was, just a few weeks before President Putin and President Xi had met and they talked about a partnership with no limits. And we were very concerned that no limits might including significant support to Russia and its aggression.

We’ve been watching this very, very closely. And, for the most part, China has been engaged in providing rhetorical, political, diplomatic support to Russia, but we have information that gives us concern that they are considering providing lethal support to Russia in the war against Ukraine. And it was important for me to share very clearly with Wang Yi that this would be a serious problem.

Whatever the message was, it doesn’t seem like Wang Yi paid a whole lot of attention to it. Yesterday, he was in Moscow meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

As I don’t speak Commie, I’m not sure what this means, but I’m sure it is both significant and ominous.

I think this was taken when Wang Yi told Lavrov about his conversation with Blinken.

Now the Wall Street Journal reports that the US is poised to release intelligence information that shows China is considering supplying Russia with lethal aid.

The Biden administration is considering releasing intelligence it believes shows that China is weighing whether to supply weapons to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, U.S. officials said.

…

In recent weeks, Western nations have picked up on intelligence that Beijing might end its previous self-imposed restraint on weapons supplies to Russia, according to U.S. and European officials, although it appears that China hasn’t yet made a final decision. Beijing had previously been cautious to confine its support to financial assistance and oil purchases, the officials said, but that stance now appears to be shifting, according to the latest intelligence assessments.

“Until now,” a senior western official said, there “has been a certain amount of ambiguity about what practical help China might give Russia.” The official said that the intelligence the U.S. and its allies have now is “much less ambiguous.”

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, Wang Wenbin, didn’t respond directly when asked on Wednesday whether China would supply lethal support for Russia’s war effort. “It is a known fact that NATO countries including the U.S. are the biggest source of weaponry for the battlefield in Ukraine, yet they keep claiming that China may be supplying weapons to Russia,” said Mr. Wang.

It is hard to imagine a more feckless and flaccid response to this situation than “we’re going to release some intel that shows the ChiComs are considering sending lethal aid to Russia.” Governments consider all kinds of actions all the time. Blinken’s State Department thought they could deter a Russian invasion of Ukraine by releasing information showing what they knew about Russian plans. It didn’t work out terribly well (see The Washington Post Throws Shade on a Major CNN ‘Scoop’ About Intercepted Russian Communications and Rightfully So for more on this).

Making a big deal about the stern talking-to given to a senior ChiCom diplomat doesn’t seem like a particularly good strategy. This boxes the Chinese into either giving the Russians lethal aid or looking like they’ve been cucked by Antony Blinken, and I, for one, can’t imagine anything more humiliating. In my view, this boneheaded move has probably guaranteed that China will give Russia lethal aid. This is particularly true when no one in the world believes the Biden White House will do anything significant. In short, every action taken by this White House regarding China has been weak, timid, and subservient (Joe Biden’s Justice Department Shuts Down China-Focused Counterintelligence Programs Because Hurt Feelings Matter).

The real question is, did we ever expect China not to give Russia lethal aid in the event the Russian Army was getting curb-stomped in Ukraine? If we did hold that expectation, then we’ve dialed “self-delusion” up to about 11. Of course, China is going to send Russia lethal aid. Russia has become a Chinese client state with its colonial-style, material-extraction economy feeding China’s industry. China may not care about what happens to Russia (this is my personal view), but they care a great deal about a nation in their sphere of influence getting thumped while they sit on their hands.

So, I think we can count on China providing lethal aid to Russia as a matter of principle. This leads to the “so what?” question. If China does send weaponry to Russia, what does that mean, and why do we care?

According to the Wall Street Journal:

The Chinese arms trade is shrouded in secrecy, and it is unclear what weapons Russia might receive. China is a world leader in the production of weapons that have been used heavily in the Ukraine war, including long-range artillery systems, precision multiple rocket launchers, antitank and surface-to-surface missiles and small, tactical drones and loitering munitions.

Here’s why I’m skeptical about this aid. First and foremost, China can’t supply what Russia needs most, that is, artillery ammunition, because they use different artillery calibers. Artillery ammunition is what the Russians need the most, and unless the Chinese retool their factories or build new ones, they can’t help. All other systems will require a supporting logistics system, operator training of varying lengths, or Chinese trainers embedded with the Russian Army. The Iranians have done this to support their Shahed suicide drones and have suffered quite a few casualties (Putin’s War, Week 34. False Flags, Martial Law, and ‘Dammed if You Do and Dammed if You Don’t’).

I think from what we’ve seen of Russia’s ability to train and equip its army — and of the ability of that army to use its weapons effectively — that it is fair to question if China providing arms to Russia is military assistance or political theater. Moreover, everything we’ve seen about the Russian military logistics system calls into question their ability to move measurable amounts of Chinese equipment into the theater of operations.

The saving grace of this episode is, like China’s actions concerning COVID, the likelihood of China intervening in a war in Europe is opening the eyes of nations that had considered China neutral or benign to the true nature of China’s intentions.
UPDATE

I think we have the first of the intelligence dumps.

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